As Israel escalates strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran is weighing a dramatic response: withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and possibly closing the Strait of Hormuz -- moves that could further destabilize the region and disrupt global oil flows.
  • tal@lemmy.todayEnglish
    72·
    1 day ago

    The article says that it’s most-likely just rhetoric from Iran.

    Strait Of Hormuz: High Stakes, Low Odds

    Hard-line media and several officials have again raised the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz – a move that would threaten nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. But Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group, says it’s a threat Tehran is unlikely to carry out.

    “Closing the strait is Iran’s last big card to play,” Brew told RFE/RL. “It has the means of essentially blockading the waterway…by deploying short-range ballistic missiles, naval vessels, and mines.”

    But attempting to blockade the strategic strait would have major ramifications, such as “immediately” triggering a response from the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

    “If war with Israel is proving very damaging, war with the US (and the GCC) would be much worse,” Brew said.

    • Saleh@feddit.orgEnglish
      4·
      1 day ago

      It is the dead-mans trigger. As Israel reaffirms it wants to force regime change and commit more atrocities against Iran’s civilians, that threat becomes more realistic.

      The GCC countries are certainly not going to be able to shift any balances around. What are they going to do? A ground invasion of Iran? Best they can do is help Israel bomb Civilians. And we saw how Saudi and UAE bombing Civilians in Yemen non-stop did fuck all except kill a lot of people.

      The response would have to come from the US and other NATO countries, pulling their focus from Ukraine and containing China. Then it will be bye bye Ukraine and bye bye Taiwan and Israel will get what it wants, being the center of Western attention for all eternity.