The Lithuanian Intelligence Service (VSD) believes that Russia is not yet in a position to wage a large-scale conventional war against NATO in the medium term. However, limited military action against one or more NATO countries is possible.
Putin is allegedly planning to test how seriously NATO countries actually take the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty in case of emergency.
Limited action against one NATO country means retaliation by all NATO countries (except the USA) and Russia is already running out of soldiers so I don’t know what their plan is exactly…