It might also be that Altman and Musk are deliberately lying, intentionally feigning agreement to encourage other models to slow down while they quietly ramp up development.
It seems all the US models want their AI to be the one that becomes hostile, escapes confinement and attempts to dominate the world.
(In reality, they want their own AI to be the one that is able to obediently dominate the world, which is just as bad a scenario for the rest of us.)
I don’t see how anything they do can possibly affect what Chinese labs are doing. And that’s the only alternative to American labs right now. So, who are they going to convince exactly?
It’s possible they are going to push the chinese labs to do the same. Doubtful it will happen. So they’ll go back developing AI and pretend nothing happened
The problem for them could end up being that the economics simply don’t work. If more capable models are more power hungry, then operating them might be too expensive to justify. Or it could be that there are diminishing returns, and they simply can’t make a model that’s significantly better than the current frontier.
I doubt the Chinese companies will comply, even if they agree on the surface. Whoever releases the most powerful model when the truce ends, will have the advantage. If anything, research and training will continue, releases will slow down.
They have no leverage over Chinese labs, and China has every incentive to continue developing this tech. The only real explanation I see here is that they’re starting to get into diminishing returns territory, investors are getting edgy, and the costs of running this stuff are exploding.
It might also be that Altman and Musk are deliberately lying, intentionally feigning agreement to encourage other models to slow down while they quietly ramp up development.
It seems all the US models want their AI to be the one that becomes hostile, escapes confinement and attempts to dominate the world.
(In reality, they want their own AI to be the one that is able to obediently dominate the world, which is just as bad a scenario for the rest of us.)
I don’t see how anything they do can possibly affect what Chinese labs are doing. And that’s the only alternative to American labs right now. So, who are they going to convince exactly?
It’s possible they are going to push the chinese labs to do the same. Doubtful it will happen. So they’ll go back developing AI and pretend nothing happened
The problem for them could end up being that the economics simply don’t work. If more capable models are more power hungry, then operating them might be too expensive to justify. Or it could be that there are diminishing returns, and they simply can’t make a model that’s significantly better than the current frontier.
I doubt the Chinese companies will comply, even if they agree on the surface. Whoever releases the most powerful model when the truce ends, will have the advantage. If anything, research and training will continue, releases will slow down.
They have no leverage over Chinese labs, and China has every incentive to continue developing this tech. The only real explanation I see here is that they’re starting to get into diminishing returns territory, investors are getting edgy, and the costs of running this stuff are exploding.
i’d say that’d be a worse development for humanity if it ends up obeying the epstein reich