Harvard economists calculate that EV sales will accelerate rapidly in the US, despite last year’s sharp U-turn in federal energy policy.
Harvard economists calculate that EV sales will accelerate rapidly in the US, despite last year’s sharp U-turn in federal energy policy.
Here’s a direct link to the white paper, instead of this low quality repost summary.
The analysis models that if 2024 law had remained in effect (the 2024 baseline), that consumer behavior would have shifted things up to 48% EV market share for new vehicles in 2030, but that the policy changes will reduce that number to about 39.4%.
They modeled consumer behavior based on EV adoption in 2023, looking at how their EV purchasing decisions were influenced by vehicle price, local charger availability, local gasoline prices, local electricity prices. Based on the very high gasoline prices of 2026, the widespread availability of chargers, both public and private installations, and the shrinking price differential between EV and gasoline vehicles, the model predicts that a substantial number of new car buyers (already relatively affluent compared with the general population) will choose new EVs.
I don’t know enough to critique their consumer behavior model, but that’s what they did.