Gambling, sure. But the part that makes a bet unwinnable isn’t the wager, it’s who controls the rule.
Polymarket is in court in New York right now over exactly this ($6.5M). The market asked whether Strategy would sell bitcoin before May 31. Strategy’s 8-K disclosed 32 BTC sold inside that window. Then a “clarification” was added requiring the sale to be publicly confirmed by the deadline, and it settled NO. Two traders holding YES sued. That’s not a bad guess being wrong — that’s a rule written after the outcome.
The one thing separating a bet from a casino is boring and testable: is the settlement rule published before you buy, and can the house amend it afterwards? If yes to the second, you’re not betting on the world, you’re betting on the platform.
Last week tonight did a good section on prediction markets this year. Tldr yes they are gambling sites, but the name is rooted in reality. Basically, farmers could pre-sell their expected crop yields, aka “futures”. The futures holder could then sell that pink slip to someone else, aka a “futures market” or “prediction market”. Societal leaches saw Draft Kings making shit tons of money and figured they could make shit tons of money by opening it to all aspects of life and argue in court it’s no different than the future markets of crop sales.
“Prediction markets” is sure one hell of a marketing spin.
It’s gambling. Nothing more, nothing less.
Gambling, sure. But the part that makes a bet unwinnable isn’t the wager, it’s who controls the rule.
Polymarket is in court in New York right now over exactly this ($6.5M). The market asked whether Strategy would sell bitcoin before May 31. Strategy’s 8-K disclosed 32 BTC sold inside that window. Then a “clarification” was added requiring the sale to be publicly confirmed by the deadline, and it settled NO. Two traders holding YES sued. That’s not a bad guess being wrong — that’s a rule written after the outcome.
The one thing separating a bet from a casino is boring and testable: is the settlement rule published before you buy, and can the house amend it afterwards? If yes to the second, you’re not betting on the world, you’re betting on the platform.
Nonsense
It’s not gambling if you know or control the outcome :p
Last week tonight did a good section on prediction markets this year. Tldr yes they are gambling sites, but the name is rooted in reality. Basically, farmers could pre-sell their expected crop yields, aka “futures”. The futures holder could then sell that pink slip to someone else, aka a “futures market” or “prediction market”. Societal leaches saw Draft Kings making shit tons of money and figured they could make shit tons of money by opening it to all aspects of life and argue in court it’s no different than the future markets of crop sales.
Wait until you hear about stock markets. 🙂