According to retail data, 35% of Marvel’s Wolverine sales were physical discs. This comes from Ampere Analysis (via The Game Business), which tracks sales data across major markets globally.
The data suggests Wolverine shifted 2.16 million units in September (it went on sale September 15), and a significant portion of those sales were on-disc. In Europe, 51% of Wolverine sales came from the boxed version. Zooming in, more than two thirds were physical sales in France, but two thirds were digital in the UK.
You’re right that we don’t know how many customers they’d lose, but it’s up to 1/3 of Wolverine players, and that’s pretty enormous. I think if you get hyper fixated on one data point too, you can make a stupid decision that loses the forest for the trees.