You’d bet against the fires if you wanted a payoff when the fire doesn’t happen. You pay when the fire does happen. So anybody who benefits from the fire world have an incentive to bet against it.
Let’s say you don’t want a fire, like it’s your data center. You’ll want to get paid if the fire does happen. So you bet on fire, like you’re buying insurance against it.
Two interesting differences from existing fire insurance.
If you’re not an asshole, then now you’re just getting insurance at a better rate because there’s more competing insurers.
If you are an asshole, then you’ll find yourself now paying the external cost of owning the data center, as higher insurance rates.
That’s the real point of this software. It would allow crowdfunded defense against people who are destroying the world and own the legal system. Most participants would just be minimizing costs or gambling, not ideologically motivated.
My point is that people would have an incentive to bet for the fire and then cause the fire, so once a bet is published chances are that the fire will happen.
A peer-to-peer prediction market where instead of betting on forest fires, we bet on datacenter fires and mansion fires.
Who would bet against those fires in a platformike that?
You’d bet against the fires if you wanted a payoff when the fire doesn’t happen. You pay when the fire does happen. So anybody who benefits from the fire world have an incentive to bet against it.
I don’t think many people that don’t want a fire would use the platform…
Let’s say you don’t want a fire, like it’s your data center. You’ll want to get paid if the fire does happen. So you bet on fire, like you’re buying insurance against it.
Two interesting differences from existing fire insurance.
That’s the real point of this software. It would allow crowdfunded defense against people who are destroying the world and own the legal system. Most participants would just be minimizing costs or gambling, not ideologically motivated.
My point is that people would have an incentive to bet for the fire and then cause the fire, so once a bet is published chances are that the fire will happen.