First, let’s eliminate transportation. Cool. Done. Now, every space station/space ship is entirely self sufficient, in a contained civilization sense. Go back to that company in a small town I referenced (I worked a contract there for a bit): those 1500 people are producing a pretty basic, but very specific doohickey that exists in pretty much every building we’ve built since the 70s. That production facility represents ~40% of the global market share. Now it is a basic doohickey, so there’s only six separate production lines that feed into the final doohickey. And each building has hundreds, if not thousands of similar specific doohickeys. Spaceships would be more complicated, so let’s just assume a thousand similar doohickeys, six production lines feeding in, one person per production line and were up at 6000 factory workers. Given the previous ratio of 17:3 of population to workers, our minimum theoretical station population size just expanded to 40,000. Multiply previous estimate for 10k by 4. And that’s not considering the feedstocks-one of those production lines was essentially just CNC machines…but they bought barstock iron. That’s another production line. Oh, and the iron has to come from somewhere, so we’re talking mining operations. New limitation: we can only build on asteroids that have ample supply of every mineral resources we need. Plus, each one of those production lines means more spare parts means more production lines. We lose all economy of scale. Minimum population goes up again.
Second, I’ve lived in a lot of places on earth, and even the least hospitable ones, like when I was in the northern USSR or down in Mexico, you had 3-4 months out of the year where you could just open the windows and switch off the heat/cooling. You don’t get that in space. And we see this with the ISS, too. A power system of ~84-120kw supports a crew of ~7 plus or minus a few. I’m guessing most of that power goes to life support. Compared to the power I draw in my house, that implies that living on a habitable planet offsets roughly 80% of the power expenditure for life support.
Third, that’s why I’m comparing primarily household consumption to the ISS. I draw a bit over a kw, and the ISS draws about 10 per person. Thermal losses happen upstream of that. I’m sure the iss solar panels (and solar panels also deal with thermal losses which might now be less than 50%, but last I seriously looked into it were 66% with perovskite cells) are actually exposed to significantly more power than their 240kw max output.
And yes, there are orders of magnitude in difference between the poorest and the richest on earth. This is why I think the 8kw number per capita is actually a low estimate. The difference being that building a dirt house in a prairie is more than adequate life support on earth. Can’t really build a space shack out of sod and expect to do much living in it. I addressed the need for transportation earlier. Matter of fact, one of the theories for why neanderthals died out while modern humans survived is because we did trade and they didn’t figure out transportation.
Cooking, water cycling, etc is already figured in. The ISS does cooking and water heating perfectly fine. Agriculture also wouldn’t be that big of a problem, actually. You just need to build a greenhouse and add a cooling system to account for the increased heat gain of having a greenhouse on your ship. I guess you’ll want some backup grow lights for going past the asteroid belt.
My point is that cooling requirements are cooling requirements. Whether you’re cooling down GPUs or you’re cooling down people, the only question is one of scale. How many GPUs do you need to cool, and how many people do you need to cool? Right now, we can cool off half a dozen, maybe a dozen people on a ship. Having that be the upper limit for space populations means we aren’t going to space in any significant way, indefinitely. If we want to have even small space stations of a few thousand people, we will need to solve a cooling problem comparable in magnitude to a data center in space.
Personally, I’m okay with Google or whatever spending their R&D budget on it. Government grants have been gutted enough, let Google burn cash on it and then put the cheap Chinese knockoff on your future spaceship.
I think the opposite. But we’ll get to that.
First, let’s eliminate transportation. Cool. Done. Now, every space station/space ship is entirely self sufficient, in a contained civilization sense. Go back to that company in a small town I referenced (I worked a contract there for a bit): those 1500 people are producing a pretty basic, but very specific doohickey that exists in pretty much every building we’ve built since the 70s. That production facility represents ~40% of the global market share. Now it is a basic doohickey, so there’s only six separate production lines that feed into the final doohickey. And each building has hundreds, if not thousands of similar specific doohickeys. Spaceships would be more complicated, so let’s just assume a thousand similar doohickeys, six production lines feeding in, one person per production line and were up at 6000 factory workers. Given the previous ratio of 17:3 of population to workers, our minimum theoretical station population size just expanded to 40,000. Multiply previous estimate for 10k by 4. And that’s not considering the feedstocks-one of those production lines was essentially just CNC machines…but they bought barstock iron. That’s another production line. Oh, and the iron has to come from somewhere, so we’re talking mining operations. New limitation: we can only build on asteroids that have ample supply of every mineral resources we need. Plus, each one of those production lines means more spare parts means more production lines. We lose all economy of scale. Minimum population goes up again.
Second, I’ve lived in a lot of places on earth, and even the least hospitable ones, like when I was in the northern USSR or down in Mexico, you had 3-4 months out of the year where you could just open the windows and switch off the heat/cooling. You don’t get that in space. And we see this with the ISS, too. A power system of ~84-120kw supports a crew of ~7 plus or minus a few. I’m guessing most of that power goes to life support. Compared to the power I draw in my house, that implies that living on a habitable planet offsets roughly 80% of the power expenditure for life support.
Third, that’s why I’m comparing primarily household consumption to the ISS. I draw a bit over a kw, and the ISS draws about 10 per person. Thermal losses happen upstream of that. I’m sure the iss solar panels (and solar panels also deal with thermal losses which might now be less than 50%, but last I seriously looked into it were 66% with perovskite cells) are actually exposed to significantly more power than their 240kw max output.
And yes, there are orders of magnitude in difference between the poorest and the richest on earth. This is why I think the 8kw number per capita is actually a low estimate. The difference being that building a dirt house in a prairie is more than adequate life support on earth. Can’t really build a space shack out of sod and expect to do much living in it. I addressed the need for transportation earlier. Matter of fact, one of the theories for why neanderthals died out while modern humans survived is because we did trade and they didn’t figure out transportation.
Cooking, water cycling, etc is already figured in. The ISS does cooking and water heating perfectly fine. Agriculture also wouldn’t be that big of a problem, actually. You just need to build a greenhouse and add a cooling system to account for the increased heat gain of having a greenhouse on your ship. I guess you’ll want some backup grow lights for going past the asteroid belt.
My point is that cooling requirements are cooling requirements. Whether you’re cooling down GPUs or you’re cooling down people, the only question is one of scale. How many GPUs do you need to cool, and how many people do you need to cool? Right now, we can cool off half a dozen, maybe a dozen people on a ship. Having that be the upper limit for space populations means we aren’t going to space in any significant way, indefinitely. If we want to have even small space stations of a few thousand people, we will need to solve a cooling problem comparable in magnitude to a data center in space.
Personally, I’m okay with Google or whatever spending their R&D budget on it. Government grants have been gutted enough, let Google burn cash on it and then put the cheap Chinese knockoff on your future spaceship.