European leaders push back against Washington’s proposal for a broader security framework, warning that Moscow cannot dictate the continent’s future as US-led peace negotiations over Ukraine prepare to resume in Abu Dhabi.
European leaders push back against Washington’s proposal for a broader security framework, warning that Moscow cannot dictate the continent’s future as US-led peace negotiations over Ukraine prepare to resume in Abu Dhabi.
Weird then that Russia, China and the US are all so concerned over what the EU is doing?
If the EU is a fading power what about the US who’s strength lay in the quality of their logistics matched with a vast array of potent allies? So much of their institutional knowledge has been lost, stripped out by a man who thought that testosterone levels made for a better military. Thats not to even mention the cimplete destruction of so many civilian institutions because of doge. All their allies goodwill has been pissed away because they looked at the sweetheart deals they were getting and demanded more and more and more. Their economy was bet entirely on AI.
Then what of Russia? It’s economy is bleeding out much like it’s military and diplomatically it has become a pariah.
China is doing better than Russia or the US by a considerable margin but it has it’s own problems and is staring down the barrel of demographic collapse.
The EU is not without it’s flaws but I find it strange in the current geopolitical landscape to look at the EU and declare it the fading power.
The EU has a lot of money and resources that can be taken over (mostly by the US, Russia might get a deal to keep eastern Europe neutral).
A huge advantage the EU had was that they had good relations with all three superpowers. They had Russian fuel, Chinese components, the protection of the US military, and access to the markets of all three. That was an insanely lucrative position to be in. Now, the EU no longer has access to Russian or Gulf fuel, and must buy much more expensive fuel from the US. (A deal with Canada could help here.) It has started a trade war with China, one in which ‘the cards are made in China’. And now it has to either accept an unequal treaty with the US (less bad in the short run), or break relations with the last of the superpowers (probably the less bad choice in the long run).
Another problem is the loss of the (neo)colonies. Many European countries had political control, or at least economic influence, over countries in Asia and Africa. But this weakens as those countries develop, and with China expanding their relations through the Belt and Road initiative, these countries can now play off the EU / IMF against China to get better deals, or even switch to Chinese loans (very useful if China is already their biggest trading partner).
As for the US and Russia, yes they are also weakening, but they started off higher so they have longer to fall before they lose the superpower status. They also have the two biggest nuclear arsenals on the planet (~1700 deployed warheads each), more than six times the size of third-placed France (~300).
Oh I see you live in fantasy land. A fantasy land where Russia didn’t lose it’s superpower status at the end of the cold war. Where the US is in a postion to sieze control of an entire contient full of organisationally and culturally diverse nations and will be able to split it between themselves and Russia. And in this fanasty of yours they’ll be able to this for so little cost that the money and reasources they’ll be able to extract from the EU will more than pay for this endavour such that the money and reasources make it worth it for the US to take over the EU.
phahahahahahhahha!
Listen if all the EU militaries were armed only with rocks invading and holding the EU would still be a massive and costly undertaking and you expect the US who are currently struggling in Iran to just be able to stroll in and take it? The same US which is famously very allegric to servicemen coffins being shipped home? Is your assessment that the EU is no longer a major power based entirely on the belief that it would simply roll over if seriously attacked?
Also pointing out that France has three hundred nukes does not convince me the EU isn’t a major power anymore.
You could argue that Russia lost its (it’s = it is) superpower status at the end of the cold war. They were very weak during the Yeltsin era, probably weaker than the EU. But that is no longer true. Russia is slowly grinding the Ukrainian army - an army three times the size of the French - while outproducing the US and EU combined three to one in shells. I still think they are the weakest of the three superpowers - but they are definitely not the Russia of 1995.
But I believe that if the EU is divided up, the majority of the spoils will go to the US. It will not be an Iran-style invasion. Iran is a single large country that has been preparing for a US attack for decades; the EU is a collection of smaller states, some led by politicians who would happily sell out their neighbours to the US. So the US will probably ‘divide and rule’ - offer to spare (or even help) countries / politicians who bend the knee, while blockading, sanctioning, or otherwise punishing the holdouts. An exception might be made for France - they have ‘the bomb’ and so would probably be let alone.