The issue with the Drake equation is that it doesn’t factor in the fact that the cosmos changes over time and that there’s a lot of space that is hostile to life or doesn’t have the needed resources. Nor does it factor in the time required to evolve intelligent life
Earlier in the age of the universe, there was too much radiation and not enough heavier elements due to most on those elements being created in supernovae.
It wasn’t until recently that we have “goldilocks zones” in galaxies. Centers of galaxies have too much radiation due to how common more massive stars are there. Meanwhile, edges of galaxies never had enough material to drive lots of star formation, so they still don’t have a lot of needed heavier elements.
And the solar system is currently travelling through a massive bubble of relatively low density of material caused by a large supernova billions of years ago. That’s resulted in even less exposure to radiation for the entire time that life has existed on Earth. And add the fact that the Solar system’s orbital mechanics results in Jupiter shielding us fron tons of asteroid impacts.
The most likely solution to the Fermi Paradox is that we’re among the first instances of life in the universe
What changed your mind?
Once I got a grasp of the probabilities given the size of the universe, I was all aboard the aliens are real train
The issue with the Drake equation is that it doesn’t factor in the fact that the cosmos changes over time and that there’s a lot of space that is hostile to life or doesn’t have the needed resources. Nor does it factor in the time required to evolve intelligent life
Earlier in the age of the universe, there was too much radiation and not enough heavier elements due to most on those elements being created in supernovae.
It wasn’t until recently that we have “goldilocks zones” in galaxies. Centers of galaxies have too much radiation due to how common more massive stars are there. Meanwhile, edges of galaxies never had enough material to drive lots of star formation, so they still don’t have a lot of needed heavier elements.
And the solar system is currently travelling through a massive bubble of relatively low density of material caused by a large supernova billions of years ago. That’s resulted in even less exposure to radiation for the entire time that life has existed on Earth. And add the fact that the Solar system’s orbital mechanics results in Jupiter shielding us fron tons of asteroid impacts.
The most likely solution to the Fermi Paradox is that we’re among the first instances of life in the universe
My hang up is that really stupid people are able to keep it secret.
I’m on the FTL travel is impossible train. They exist, we can just never interact.