I know no one here is part of the Russian government, so I’m not expecting concrete answers here.
What I’m asking is simply what will happen if [well, when, at this point] The Ukraine ends up…falling, per se?
That’s a question in of itself really. Will Ukraine fight until the AFU collapses? Will there be a coup? Would a pro russian or neutral ukraine be established across all of what is currently the Ukraine, or will there be an attempt to make a “taiwan-ified” state in the west?
Russia should advance the front until they cut off Ukraine entirely from the Black Sea. That should ensure Ukraine becomes bigger, shittier Kosovo.
Once there, Russia should also join up with Transnistria (like how they already border Abkhazia and South Ossetia) to prevent Moldova from invading it at NATO’s orders.
I expect that’s very likely the plan. Once Zaporozhye falls, I expect Odessa will be next and from there there’s a straight path to Transnistria. Russia is likely planning to exhaust the AFU in the north first, and take Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) which will cut the logistics between the north and the south.