I know no one here is part of the Russian government, so I’m not expecting concrete answers here.
What I’m asking is simply what will happen if [well, when, at this point] The Ukraine ends up…falling, per se?
That’s a question in of itself really. Will Ukraine fight until the AFU collapses? Will there be a coup? Would a pro russian or neutral ukraine be established across all of what is currently the Ukraine, or will there be an attempt to make a “taiwan-ified” state in the west?
The most interesting scenario, the implications of which I haven’t really seen discussed much, is that Russia absorbs everything aside from a rump western Ukraine where anti-Russian sentiment is the strongest. That would become Europe’s problem, and since it wouldn’t be a viable state economically, that would mean Europe having to dump billions into propping it up. If Europe allows it to collapse then there will be a refugee crisis compounding the current economic disaster.
From Russian perspective, Ukraine isn’t the root problem, it’s just a tool that NATO is using to fight them. So, their goal has to be to neutralize NATO as a threat. Putting stress on the economy in Europe seems like the logical way to go about it. We’re already seeing a huge political crisis unfolding with the neoliberal centre collapsing, and that’s creating political opportunities for Russia to exploit. I’m sure I thought of this, it must’ve been gamed by Russian planners as well.