For the vast majority of these companies, probably not.
If the company is AI-only, then if/when the bubble bursts, I suspect it’ll go under too. Only the biggest players will survive that, like OpenAI, since so many other services call out to their API.
Companies that can pivot back to core markets will be fine, Google, Microsoft. Shovel sellers will mostly be okay too. What that’ll look like for them is a period of huge overvaluation and then a return to sanity, you can see similar histories if you look at the stock price of still extant dotcom bubble companies.
And then the hype will be over, there will be a huge crater left in GDP, retirement accounts, and the larger economy, but some “AI” technology will remain — stuff that is actually useful, like transcription, natural speech, noise removal, automated rotoscoping. But the fantasy of replacing information workers and artists will not come to pass, though they probably won’t differentiate for the next several years, as the jobs market is decimated all the same by speculation hangover.
For the vast majority of these companies, probably not.
If the company is AI-only, then if/when the bubble bursts, I suspect it’ll go under too. Only the biggest players will survive that, like OpenAI, since so many other services call out to their API.
Companies that can pivot back to core markets will be fine, Google, Microsoft. Shovel sellers will mostly be okay too. What that’ll look like for them is a period of huge overvaluation and then a return to sanity, you can see similar histories if you look at the stock price of still extant dotcom bubble companies.
And then the hype will be over, there will be a huge crater left in GDP, retirement accounts, and the larger economy, but some “AI” technology will remain — stuff that is actually useful, like transcription, natural speech, noise removal, automated rotoscoping. But the fantasy of replacing information workers and artists will not come to pass, though they probably won’t differentiate for the next several years, as the jobs market is decimated all the same by speculation hangover.
That seems optimistic, but I’ll take it.