When an Iranian official this week laid out a list of demands to end the war started by the United States and Israel, he added an item that hadn’t been on Tehran’s list before: recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ordinarily passes has emerged as the Islamic Republic’s most potent weapon. And it is now seeking to turn into both a source of potentially billions of dollars in annual revenue and a pressure point on the global economy.
Iran has long threatened to close the strait in case of an attack, but few expected it to follow through – or for it to prove so effective in disrupting global trade flows. The scale of the impact appears to have expanded Tehran’s ambitions, with the new demands suggesting it is seeking to turn that leverage into something more durable.
This is basically just the Obama Iran deal. It was working pretty much exactly like this until Trump tore it up and began in multiple rounds attacking Iran.
After this war, Iran has no reason to sign such a deal especially since Trump and Israel will just tear it up whenever they want. Iran needs security guarantees which your deal doesn’t provide.
Then I will include security guarantees. If the US and/or Israel attacks Iran while Iran is abiding by the agreement, Russia, China, and Europe would intervene militarily to protect Iran.
How well did that work out for Ukraine?
The realpolitik answer is always to get nukes before they can stop you. Look at how well it worked for Israel and North Korea.
Yes, but the US and Israel can stop Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, but Trump should stop at that rather than demanding things such as ballistic missiles with limited range and no aid to organizations such as Hezbollah.
Lol so now Russia China and Europe have to jump into militarily attack the US ? This is your plan? Well sounds solved to me.
They don’t have to attack the US and/or Israel, just send troops to Iran. This would include not only ground troops but air and ground forces. Russia is near Iran. Seeking military forces would be easy.
Yes they could do that. But why would they commit to that?
You said Iran would want security guarantees. This is it. Russia and China would definitely agree to it since Russia wouldn’t want an Iran controlled by the US and China needs Iranian oil.
China is getting Iranian oil right now and the US isn’t going to control Iran. Why would either of them commit to this? Pretending like you solved the problem when none of the incentives line up is ridiculous. Either of them could militarily defend Iran if they want to without commiting to a security guarantees for Iran. So why would they bond themselves unnecessarily?