Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
So…
That’s saying the initial R value was 2.2-2.7…
And in the last studied out real of Andes, they said it was 2.1…
Since you’re offering to answer questions:
Why shouldn’t we compare the initial R values since we know both?
If we have a median R value of something with a best case 40% mortality…
By that point we’re already fucked.
Like, I’m starting to doubt facts and/or logic are gonna help you here buddy.
But that was a nice source you didn’t understand, so thanks for linking that.
Edit:
Like, it almost feels like you think “r value” is a set number and not a descriptor of how it’s actually spreading…
instead of pointlessly having an internet argument now how about we both set a reminder for 1 year from now.
Welp, that’s pretty much the proof that neither facts nor logic will work…
It’s like if I said “if we don’t hit the breaks the bus is driving off the cliff”
And you said that’s only true if the bus goes off the cliff, even if we hit the breaks
You think that if there isn’t a global pandemic, it means one couldn’t have happened.
I’m sorry buddy, I honestly gave you a lot of chances, but you don’t want facts and logic to try and figure out reality, you have a belief of what will happen, and will say anything that defends that belief.
Literally no one will ever be able to change your opinion about any thing.
And the fucked up thing is you’re likely proud of that
I really like how you misrepresented stats, created strawman arguments and just invented stuff that was never said and claim you’re the only one with facts.
The actual experts are saying this won’t be a pandemic.
Enjoy having whatever meltdown you’re experiencing. The rest of us will be chilling out in reality.
The abstract, in full:
So…
That’s saying the initial R value was 2.2-2.7…
And in the last studied out real of Andes, they said it was 2.1…
Since you’re offering to answer questions:
Why shouldn’t we compare the initial R values since we know both?
If we have a median R value of something with a best case 40% mortality…
By that point we’re already fucked.
Like, I’m starting to doubt facts and/or logic are gonna help you here buddy.
But that was a nice source you didn’t understand, so thanks for linking that.
Edit:
Like, it almost feels like you think “r value” is a set number and not a descriptor of how it’s actually spreading…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
You just don’t understand what the words and phrases you keep using mean…
Like, if contact is minimized, it will be lower…
If someone goes the World Cup, it makes the number skyrocket, despite the virus not mutating…
You just fundamentally don’t understand any of this buddy, and instead of asking questions to learn, you want a slap fight.
I’m probably going to give up on helping you soon
You want to compare apples to apples now after claiming
Is that right?
In the video you linked the expert said this wasn’t a covid situation. You need to calm down.
You know what, instead of pointlessly having an internet argument now how about we both set a reminder for 1 year from now.
Let’s revisit this and examine who was right. Should be fun.
Welp, that’s pretty much the proof that neither facts nor logic will work…
It’s like if I said “if we don’t hit the breaks the bus is driving off the cliff”
And you said that’s only true if the bus goes off the cliff, even if we hit the breaks
You think that if there isn’t a global pandemic, it means one couldn’t have happened.
I’m sorry buddy, I honestly gave you a lot of chances, but you don’t want facts and logic to try and figure out reality, you have a belief of what will happen, and will say anything that defends that belief.
Literally no one will ever be able to change your opinion about any thing.
And the fucked up thing is you’re likely proud of that
I really like how you misrepresented stats, created strawman arguments and just invented stuff that was never said and claim you’re the only one with facts.
The actual experts are saying this won’t be a pandemic.
Enjoy having whatever meltdown you’re experiencing. The rest of us will be chilling out in reality.