• 秦始皇帝@lemmy.ml
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    1 day ago

    “If the American oligarchs convert their wealth to Chinese yuan prior to the collapse of that pillar… the elite of the west remain elite…”

    This still treats currency as if it were social power in itself. Under the Chinese system, currency buys exactly zero political command. It buys no control over the Party, the PLA, the police, intelligence, courts, planning organs, SOEs, land policy, capital controls, or the strategic direction of the state. At most, money can still purchase limited command over labour inside the private sector, but even that is precisely the sphere being narrowed by the tightening of the birdcage since 2014.

    You also vastly underestimate how difficult it is to simply “move into yuan.” China has strict capital controls for a reason. The RMB is not a frictionless liberal reserve currency designed to let foreign billionaires freely enter, exit, speculate, and dominate. The whole point of China’s financial architecture is that money remains subordinate to state policy. A Western oligarch holding yuan is not transformed into a Chinese power-holder. He is merely holding a claim inside a system whose commanding heights he does not control.

    “The existing configuration is failing and the American elite are aware of it… they hype anti-China rhetoric because they still have some need to appeal to the masses but are quietly planning…”

    This is not analysis it’s a fantasy. The Western bourgeoisie is not pushing anti-China propaganda as some cynical cover before peacefully jumping into China’s orbit. They are doing it because China is an objective threat to the material basis of their global rule: dollar hegemony, military encirclement, technological monopoly, sanctions power, control over supply chains, and the ideological monopoly of liberal capitalism.

    Anti-China propaganda functions much like earlier fascistic scapegoating campaigns: it manufactures an external and racialised enemy while the bourgeoisie brings the teeth of imperialism home. As crisis deepens, the ruling class does not simply retire into yuan-denominated comfort. It intensifies repression, attacks labour, expands surveillance, militarises society, disciplines dissent, and moves toward fascistic consolidation. That is already visible in crackdowns on labour, protest, migrants, communists, anti-war forces, and dissenting media across the imperial core.

    The idea that these people are preparing to “become Chinese” is not analysis. It is vibes. They are not trying to join China’s system, because China’s system would not give them command. They are trying to preserve their own system by escalating against the force that most clearly exposes its decline.

    “What do you expect to see domestically and internationally once China assumes the position of the financial pillar?”

    First, there is no single coronation moment where China becomes “the financial pillar” and then chooses whether to abolish capitalism globally. Transitions in world systems are uneven, conflictual, and determined by the balance of forces. The more likely path is continued de-dollarisation, expansion of alternative settlement systems, greater South-South development, and the erosion of imperial coercive capacity.

    Domestically, I would expect a continuation of tightening the birdcage: disciplining private capital, strengthening planning capacity, prioritising productive over speculative development, expanding state and collective capacity, and preventing finance from becoming sovereign. That does not mean abolishing all private economic activity overnight. It means progressively subordinating it to social and national development as has been happening.

    Internationally, much depends on the trajectory of the Euro-Amerikan empire. At present, it appears to be moving toward fascism, remilitarisation, labour repression, and intensified imperial aggression. As US dominance weakens, China will likely continue supporting national development and anti-imperial sovereignty across the Global South, with greater room to back progressive and national-liberation forces as the constraints of encirclement lessen.

    “Do they flex their new power and begin to undermine the entire capitalist system when they control the value of ‘money’?”

    This is idealist nonsense. No one “controls the value of money” in abstraction. Money is not the motor of history. It is a social relation resting on production, state power, military force, trade structures, class rule, and institutional trust. You keep treating currency as the master lever, when it is actually a concentrated expression of deeper material relations.

    If China gains greater financial centrality, that does not mean it can press a button and abolish capitalism. What it can do is weaken the mechanisms through which imperialism disciplines the world: dollar sanctions, debt traps, unequal exchange, technological dependency, military blackmail, and control over development finance. That is how the ground is prepared for further transition. Not through monetary voluntarism.

    “The threat can be minimized should China take the reins of global finance and allow billionaires… to maintain their fiefdoms…”

    This misunderstands the nuclear danger. The threat is not primarily that individual billionaires fear losing their personal bank balances (again substitutingbindividualism for systemic analysis). The threat is that the American imperial state may face irreversible systemic displacement. A declining hegemon does not need to be literally expropriated before it becomes dangerous. It only needs to perceive that its command over the world system is ending.

    American power is not just wealth. It is bases, fleets, sanctions, intelligence networks, finance, media, treaties, comprador elites, technology chokepoints, and ideological dominance. If that architecture breaks, the bourgeoisie loses far more than “influence.” It loses the world-historical conditions of its reproduction as a ruling class. That is why nuclear escalation cannot be dismissed as bluff.

    Your error is that you reduce class rule to portfolio management. You imagine oligarchs can preserve themselves by swapping dollars for yuan, while ignoring that their power depends on states, armies, laws, property regimes, labour discipline, and imperial hierarchy. They cannot simply exit the system that constitutes them. And China cannot simply inherit global finance and decree socialism by currency policy. The actual struggle is over productive forces, state capacity, class power, and the dismantling of imperial coercion. I don’t know what it is about systemic analysis that you’re so afraid of.

    • backalleycoyote@lemmy.today
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      1 day ago

      I’m just indulging curiosity. My comments have sparked a lot of responses from a lot of different commenters. I have no idea whether the respondents are in China, the US, or elsewhere, and while you all share some similar ideas, there’s a wide range of attitudes and ideas about what the current status is, what the goals should be, and how/time frame it might transpire. Your responses are just another one on the list and shape how I contemplate my own world views and then push me to construct a clearer goal of how to engage with different personalities and opinions in the future. I’m probably never going to meet any of you in real life nor will any of our personal actions amount to much on the global scale, but I do and will encounter real humans on the local level I operate on and have an influence in, so bantering philosophically with randos on the internet is practice for legitimate social engagement. It’s a place where the stakes are low and the points don’t matter but you have access to a wide variety of human opinions.