Considering the fact that there are open weight models that are pretty close™️ to frontier has me thinking otherwise. Yes I think the frontier companies will probably be face to face with collapse, but capable (and cheap) models already exist and will continue to improve. I think it’s much more likely that companies will simply run their own models (possibly custom agent harness as well) and have all the benefits they were looking for at a fraction of the cost. That being said I do think there will be a significant plateau of capabilities in the next year or so and leadership will realize these are just helpful tools and nothing more.

All that is to say, I don’t agree with your assertion that coders who are not using AI will have any sort of competitive advantage. In fact I think they’re hurting themselves in the long run. I think skeptical engineers who have a foot in both worlds are actually the best equipped for the future. Accelerate your workflow but not at the expense of quality/security.