sanitation — the part about collective selling as a valuation signal connects to something broader in credit too: when VC-backed AI companies start doing venture debt rounds on top of equity (which picked up noticeably in H2 last year), it usually means the equity window is quietly closing for them. They’re essentially confirming your thesis from the liability side. The question I keep coming back to is whether the hyperscaler capex commitments (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) create enough of a demand floor to slow the unwind even if equity sentiment cracks. Wrote up some notes on that tension — no clean answer but the range of outcomes is wider than consensus seems to price.
sanitation — the part about collective selling as a valuation signal connects to something broader in credit too: when VC-backed AI companies start doing venture debt rounds on top of equity (which picked up noticeably in H2 last year), it usually means the equity window is quietly closing for them. They’re essentially confirming your thesis from the liability side. The question I keep coming back to is whether the hyperscaler capex commitments (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) create enough of a demand floor to slow the unwind even if equity sentiment cracks. Wrote up some notes on that tension — no clean answer but the range of outcomes is wider than consensus seems to price.