The number of newborns in Japan fell below 700,000 for the first time since records began in 1899. The government data released Wednesday showed a 16th straight year of decline and it's faster than had been expected.
I agree that immigration is a big part of fixing this.
I think if the population (replacement rate )declines too swiftly, you have a lot of old people and few young people. At some point it become exponentially harder to even keep your last generation’s replacement rate, and you have spiraling population decline. See South Korea for the Speedrun.
If Japan steadily declines to 80M it could be fine. If Japan goes to 80M in a generation, that’s very very bad for the chances of there being any Japanese people left in a few more generations
I agree that immigration is a big part of fixing this.
It isn’t. Not for long at least, as the last large countries are currently finishing their own demographic transition and starting to shrink themselves.
Is the world’s population still growing? Yes. But the growth rate peaked in the 60s, it’s cratering just as fast as it spiked, and by 2100 thereabouts there will be overall shrinkage.
Also before we get at the question whether Japan wants to have lots of immigration, what about the question whether those people wouldn’t rather build their own countries.
There’s nothing wrong with the world’s population shrinking – and also not with it growing, the earth is far from its carrying capacity. What’s frightening is very quick population growth or shrinkage because it’s an absolute breeding ground for all kinds of inequalities and societal unrest.
I agree that immigration is a big part of fixing this.
I think if the population (replacement rate )declines too swiftly, you have a lot of old people and few young people. At some point it become exponentially harder to even keep your last generation’s replacement rate, and you have spiraling population decline. See South Korea for the Speedrun.
If Japan steadily declines to 80M it could be fine. If Japan goes to 80M in a generation, that’s very very bad for the chances of there being any Japanese people left in a few more generations
It isn’t. Not for long at least, as the last large countries are currently finishing their own demographic transition and starting to shrink themselves.
Is the world’s population still growing? Yes. But the growth rate peaked in the 60s, it’s cratering just as fast as it spiked, and by 2100 thereabouts there will be overall shrinkage.
Also before we get at the question whether Japan wants to have lots of immigration, what about the question whether those people wouldn’t rather build their own countries.
There’s nothing wrong with the world’s population shrinking – and also not with it growing, the earth is far from its carrying capacity. What’s frightening is very quick population growth or shrinkage because it’s an absolute breeding ground for all kinds of inequalities and societal unrest.
S. Korea has some of the highest populations per sqkm on the planet. One of the problems they’re facing is the lack of real estate.
A generation ago, people were talking about the perils of overpopulation, particularly in highly dense countries like Japan and Korea.
It’s so bizarre to see a marginal shift in trends lead people to extrapolate an extinction level event.