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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: March 14th, 2025

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  • That’s the terrifying part, Trump has no capacity for strategic thinking, no regard for anyone else, and no respect for human life. There are only about 56K people on Greenland, and he would treat them like the Conquistadors treated the natives they encountered, or the settlers treated the Native Americans as they stole their lands. Of course there would be huge backlash from Europe, which would likely involve isolating the U.S. from trade, but I doubt there’d be a hot war against the U.S… I could be wrong though. In any event, Trump is a moron, a horrible person, and it will take the collapse of the U.S. to get rid of him.



  • Just picking an arbitrary date to figure growth isn’t very helpful, for example I could pick 6 months ago and they would be down by 44%.

    Lol. Note this point in my original post, which was directly quoted by you in your response:

    I put everything I owned into a 2x gold ETF back in June 2024

    Note that gold has just broken out, as Russia’s selling is no longer suppressing the price. My model leads me to expect to see gold make a new all time high above $5600/oz before year end, about a 30% rise from where it is at today, and to top $15K/oz before the end of 2027, though the actual peak in this time frame may well be in the $20k-25K/oz range.

    Also, by “shit hit the fan” I meant the economic unwinding of the U.S. and the damage to the world economy coming within in a year. It may take a few more years before WWIII actually gets rolling. I don’t have a good model for forecasting that.




  • It’s such a great feeling, isn’t it? The most impressive example of this I’ve managed was designing and printing in TPU new tires for my e-skateboard. It took a few iterations before I found the right “no air” design and TPU, as some are harder and less flexible, but in the end I was able to print long-lasting tires that gripped well and were flexible enough to be comfortable.


  • I think the largest moving etf associated with gold was Jnug with a 3 year return at around 54%. If you’re okay with yoloing your entire portfolio into a volatile etf you could have put in the shipping etf Bwet and gotten a 97% return.

    UGL still up over 100% since June 2024.

    This is the part of your plan that makes zero sense… Yes, market instability usually increases the price of physical gold. However people who believe in gold as a currency alternative typically buy actual gold, not an ETF. If the dollar crashes how are you going to turn your ETF into liquidity?

    I’m not betting on gold as a currency alternative. It’s a pure speculative play. Central banks are buying gold to underpin their own currencies, and speculators will pile in when things come unglued. The dollar “crash” will effectively be runaway inflation. It will not instantly go to zero. There will be a point in time where I will liquidate and briefly go to cash, and then immediately roll over into another asset. My thinking at this point is potentially oil, as it is in high demand when there is war, and from my perspective we’re teeing up WWIII right now. I’ll make my decision when the time draws near. My expectation is that the shit will hit the fan within a year though. We’ll see.



  • This is super interesting to me, beyond the fact that it evidences the strain on Russia and it’s quickly approaching financial collapse as a consequence of disastrous war on the strong people of Ukraine. This is because I recognized the potential for the next great gold bull run back in 2017 and started allocating assets. As the 2024 election came into focus, I recognized that unfortunately Trump was likely to win, greatly destabilizing the world, tee up the financial collapse of the U.S., and pour gasoline onto what was already an impressive bull market driven by central bank purchases, and accordingly I put everything I owned into a 2x gold ETF back in June 2024, when gold was $2300 an ounce. Everything has unfolded as anticipated, but prices don’t move in a straight line, and early this year, as prices got frothy and topped $5500/oz, there was a big sell off, which is generally to be expected so I just sat tight. Now I know who was selling:

    The announcement follows Russia’s accelerated sale of gold from its reserves. The central bank reduced its holdings for six consecutive months during the first half of 2026 as Moscow sought liquid assets that remained accessible despite the freezing of much of its foreign-currency reserves abroad.

    Look at the chart. I further noticed that the price has seemed to make a solid bottom over the last few months at around $4000/oz, paving the way for the next move upward, which in my opinion will be the big move I’ve been waiting for.

    While it may not be readily apparent to everyone, the U.S. is teetering on the brink of insolvency itself, and when it goes, the dollar will go with it and destroy it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Bold claim I know, but hear me out. You can run a 2% budget deficit indefinitely when your economy grows by 3% annually. However, under Trump the budget deficit is ~6%, and due to his stupid trade wars and the impact on energy costs from the Iran war and other mismanagement, the U.S. economy is growing only at 2%, and probably shrinking if you take out the spending from the AI bubble. Worse, the U.S. has to roll over a big chunk of it’s national debt this year, and has to do so at much higher rates because no sane person or government wants to hold U.S. treasuries. The belligerence of the U.S. on the world stage, the shrinking of trade with the U.S., the inherent vulnerability to asset seizure, etc. makes U.S. treasuries a risky asset, which is reflected in the interest rate. 30 year treasuries have been sitting over 5% for a while now, a rate not held since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. This is not a sign of economic health. Trump also has recently appointed his own, handpicked, fed chair, and has appointed 3 of the 7 fed governors. If one more goes, either by Trump firing them, stochastic terrorism, or other means, he will have cemented control over the fed funds rate, and you can absolutely bet he will juice rates in the short term to provide a boost going into the mid term elections in a desperate bid to maintain control over congress. Even if he doesn’t you know he’s going to declare a false emergency, put his ICE goons as every polling station with minorities, and arrest people of color to suppress voting. This in and of itself will cause more to flee U.S. bonds and necessitate money printing to try to keep the U.S. afloat. As a consequence, we will see a massive gold spike as the “exorbitant privilege” of the U.S. financial empire crumbles.








  • The paint looks decent and I like the color. I’d keep it as-is for originality. If you want to make it pristine, you can get some automotive touch-up paint touch-up any scratches or nicks. As they say, it’s only original once. Beyond the handlebars, two improvements that I’ve found nice are trigger shifters (someone upgraded mine before I got it) and pedals with a wider base. If the pedals are comfortable for you, I’d keep them though, as they look sturdy. I think you’re definitely going get some miles and smiles out of it!