Back in 2022 before the first round the highest LFI got in the polls was 18.6%, and they got 21.95% in the actual election, so that’s an underestimate by at least 3%. First round was April 10th, and before April, most polls were giving LFI around 14-15%. Only one pollster (Cluster 17) had given LFI 16% once (so it seemed plausible that this was just an outlier on the high side of things). Have a look for yourself, and look at the numbers at the end of March: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l’élection_présidentielle_française_de_2022

Pollsters want to demoralize us. It would be foolish of us to believe them.

In France, the prime minister has handed in his resignation something like 12 hours after nominating the new government.

There have now been four prime ministers (Attal, Barnier, Bayrou, Lecornu) since Macron refused to recognize the result of the parliamentary snap election he called in summer 2024. Macron has stayed true to his original motto since 2017, which is not to compromise on anything ever, even with potential allies.

Polls in France systematically disadvantage the main left-wing party LFI and its probable presidential candidate for 2027, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Even so, he is currently polling at 15%, indicating that the coming presidential election will very likely be a contest between the left and the far right.