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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 1st, 2023

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  • If the filibuster is removed, it is also possible to get through with 50+VP as tie breaker or 51. The filibuster being removed is not as unlikely as you may think since Republicans right now are getting closer and closer towards defacto removing the filibuster. There currently are narrow ways around the filibuster (reconsideration is one big one) that are supposed to have a bunch of limitations, but they are testing the waters in ignoring violations of those limitations. The senate parliamentarian is the one who makes rulings about if something violates their clauses, but their opinion can be ignored by a strict majority via the “nuclear option”

    A month ago, Republicans used the nuclear option to ignore the senate parliamentarian ruling that the Congressional Review Act would not allow them to skip the filibuster to remove California’s EPA waivers (see here).

    As I write this Republicans are currently trying to play another different a different trick about some of the stuff in the Big Beautiful Bill. Dems have been challenging a bunch of provisions and getting the parliamentarian to most of the time rule they are in violation of the Byrd rule. But they are also trying to challenge the whole bill as violating the Byrd rule’s limit that a bill passed via reconsecration cannot increase the deficit over a ten-year period. Republicans are playing an accounting trick to claim it doesn’t. They know the parliamentarian is unlikely to agree with them, so they are currently trying to prevent dems from even being able to ask the parliamentarian about it









  • Maybe, maybe not. Don’t assume it’s a given that they will ignore it. This is not a defense of this administration. This is a reminder against always having the hopelessness that this administration wants us all to have. They want us to assume all fights are hopeless so we don’t fight them

    While they have very notably been ignoring the order on Abrego Garcia, they have followed some of the court order in other related cases like this

    For instance, a week ago ICE released Columbia pro-Palestine activist Mohsen Mahdawi from detention after a judge ordered immediate release. Here’s a photo of him leaving







  • For the moment in the current AI boom, but not expected to in the long run. Just make the progress less fast. Still not ideal, of course, but don’t get into the mindset that we can’t make any progress at all when we still can and are doing so

    From the article

    Ember’s report shows that clean generation growth is set to outpace faster-rising demand in the coming years, marking the start of a permanent decline in fossil fuel generation. The current expected growth in clean generation would be sufficient to meet a demand increase of 4.1% per year to 2030, which is above expectations for demand growth.


  • It is worth noting that you can already beat meat on price with things like beans, lentils, chickpeas, etc. Plant-based meats specifically are just more expensive because they’re building the economies of scale and putting some of their research costs into the price. Plant-based meats are also already cheaper than animal meats in some parts of the world

    But yes, once that becomes much prevalent, sales will likely increase substantially

    As a related note: this is also encouraging that a number of coffee chains are now dropping their non-dairy milk up charges after pressure from activists. Once they got Starbucks to do so, it’s spread to tons of chains. Even the worst plant milks are way better across all environmental metrics compared to dairy (yes even water weighted by scarcity), so it’s going to be good for the environment




  • This wasn’t the first nationwide protest of his second term nor will it be the last. This was the 4th nationwide 50501 protest. Plus other movement like Tesla Takedown had large nationwide protests prior too. It’s just that now it’s gotten large enough that the media can no longer ignore it. It took time to get here. Each protest keeps getting larger than the last

    Millions of people have just been put in touch with the various local groups organizing these protests. Usually at these protests they’ll be people going around giving info, sigining people up for mailing lists, etc. That’s a good part of how each protest gets bigger

    Besides just protests, that will enable much more action and more rapid action in the future. For instance Indivisible does tons of work on directed pressure of congress and local leaders. 50501 organized smaller boycotts in the past when the crowds were smaller. Now they can organize boycotts more with more effect











  • Not immediately

    Unlike executive branch agencies, the federal courts can continue operations for about two weeks following a government shutdown. When a shutdown loomed in September 2019, the U.S. federal courts confirmed they could use reserve or carryover funds accumulated from various revenue sources not dependent on Congress, such as case filing fees. When courts are on notice that a government shutdown may be looming, they can take steps to conserve funds by deferring non-critical expenses — for example, by curbing travel, new hires, and certain contracts.

    https://judicialstudies.duke.edu/2024/05/how-a-u-s-government-shutdown-impacts-courts-access-to-justice/

    Plus voting in favor of this CR would be codifying much of what these cases are about. Many of the illegal spending cuts would become legal until September making the cases moot.

    It would also fuck over DC local government in a way the executive branch cannot easily do. Congress can control DC budgets but very little of the DC budget comes from federal money (<1%) where Trump could mess with. The CR has a clause to cut $1 billion from their budget despite that not saving the federal government any money


  • I mean that they tally support / oppose issue in volume. Congressional staffers do note that calls matter in terms of people’s votes. They are used a proxy for the opinions of constituents and also how strongly people hold those beliefs. Whether or not that’s fair is a different question. Republicans have historically been waaaay better than leftists about flooding the phone, but the large backlash here is starting to have an impact.

    Some of the senators have switched their pledged vote in large part due to the calls. For instance, Tim Kaine went from actively encouraging others to vote in favor of letting it pass the filibuster to now being a hard no against it

    Plus other dems in congress are deeply pissed about it on the house side. The larger the number of calls the more ammo they have to senate dems. This is the kind of ideal situation for outside voices mattering - when people within the system are pissed with you

    What we’re hearing: House Democrats’ text chains lit up Thursday night with expressions of blinding anger, according to numerous lawmakers who described the conversations on the condition of anonymity.

    “People are PISSED,” one House Democrat told Axios in a text message. Several members — including moderates — have begun voicing support for a primary challenge to Schumer, floating Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) as possible candidates, three House Democrats said.

    One lawmaker even vowed at the House Democratic retreat to “write a check tonight” supporting Ocasio-Cortez, said the senior House Democrat

    https://www.axios.com/2025/03/14/house-democrats-angry-chuck-schumer-shutdown