Summary: as it could be expected, Iran retaliated. Some of the missiles were shot down, but some appear to have landed in central Tel Aviv.

  • perestroika@lemm.eeOP
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    3 days ago

    Opinion:

    Politically, the ayatollah can’t be toppled by foreseeable events, except if an Israeli strike should kill him. His successor in that case is unlikely to be milder. Netanyahu is also firmly in power due to special circumstances, and probably pretty safe from any Iranian attempts.

    Militarily, Iran has taken bigger losses, and has probably lost expensive and important parts of its nuclear programme - but not its stocks of highly enriched uranium, or its ability to launch ballistic missiles. From that perspective, if the Israeli strikes were meant to disarm Iran - they didn’t.

    Prognosis: they will trade more strikes and neither will achieve breakthrough success. Iran will lose more in the process.

    • marcos@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      Hum… I only disagree on that it looks like the entire reason Israel is attacking is that Netanyahu isn’t firmly in power.

      If Israel starts getting seriously hit, I’d expect him to fall. But the consequences of that can go both ways.

    • Substance_P@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium to potentially create multiple nuclear weapons, with estimates suggesting it could have enough for up to nine atomic bombs. What’s the chance that there is a possibility of Iran using this material in various forms of warfare, including dirty bombs?

      • Saleh@feddit.org
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        3 days ago

        Iran will not give Israel a pretext to nuke the place. Dirty bombs are not an effective mean of warfare, just a mean of terror. So far Iran has aimed its missiles at military targets, like the Israeli Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv. Iran wants to weaken the Israeli military, and more importantly the support of the Israeli population and Israels allies. A dirty bomb would cause the opposite for all of that.