Harvard economists calculate that EV sales will accelerate rapidly in the US, despite last year’s sharp U-turn in federal energy policy.
Here’s a direct link to the white paper, instead of this low quality repost summary.
The analysis models that if 2024 law had remained in effect (the 2024 baseline), that consumer behavior would have shifted things up to 48% EV market share for new vehicles in 2030, but that the policy changes will reduce that number to about 39.4%.
They modeled consumer behavior based on EV adoption in 2023, looking at how their EV purchasing decisions were influenced by vehicle price, local charger availability, local gasoline prices, local electricity prices. Based on the very high gasoline prices of 2026, the widespread availability of chargers, both public and private installations, and the shrinking price differential between EV and gasoline vehicles, the model predicts that a substantial number of new car buyers (already relatively affluent compared with the general population) will choose new EVs.
I don’t know enough to critique their consumer behavior model, but that’s what they did.
Doubt. It’s currently at 7% and I really doubt 32% of buyers in the US give a shit to buy EVs.
Buyers in the US would definitely give a shit about buying EVs… if there were more to choose from, and there were cheaper options. Basically just open up the US market to Chinese vehicles and we’d get there in no time.
Just did the math, to reach 32% market share, EV usage would need to grow by 66% each year, for four years.
I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it would really need some extraordinary growth.
