Based on the numbers at https://steamframeout.com/ you can do some very rough back of the envolope calculations and it’s not looking great.
In recent days, purchases and deliveries seem to move to a pretty consistent 150/day pace. At this rate, moving through the queue of roughly 37.000 reservations will take around 240 days.
Being more generous you could substract the already shipped Frames and assume a more optimistic 160 deliveries per day. This shortens the timespan to just 200 days for the outstanding backlog.
So yeah, the last reservations would be delivered around April 2027.
I am fully aware of all the caveats of the numbers used, this is just a fun little exercise based on available data.
I thought the distinction between the reservation list and waitlist was that the reserved ones were ready to go basically immediately. They were moving through the reserved list pretty fast initially too. Guess not.
It seems the reservation list means “we have allocated a unit to you that is scheduled for production sometime in the near future” and waitlist means “uhhhh well you’ll get one when we get around to it”.
Being on the waitlist myself I slowly accepting the fact that it’s a “wait and see if we even produce a Frame for you” list. At this rate other manufacturers might offer competitive alternatives before I could even order one.
The saddest thing is that I would’ve been willing to spend up to 1.800,- if only I could.