The west is really pushing for the Shah to take over, huh
There were some reports from Arak that workers started taking over factories. But no, what gets reported are some fringe monarchists.
Btw, the Iranian communist party talks of 600ish dead and 11000 arrested. Those seem more believable numbers. Protests seem to still be ongoing on a large scale, I hope they bring down the Ayatollah regime. All power to the workers!
The son of the shah (he hasn’t ruled as a shah, his father did) is a seemingly smart and politically competent person, who seems outwardly like a liberal democrat (but one can’t see into people).
His problem is that he isn’t part of a militant organization, and he was brought up in peace and plenty. They listen to his words and respect him, but he may not have the kind of colleagues to bring down the (quite bloodthirsty) ayatollah’s regime. :( Overthrowing a country requires lots of organized people who are considerably less polite.
Btw, the Iranian communist party talks of 600ish dead and 11000 arrested.
They don’t update their sites as often as news organizations, and don’t have so many contacts to intgrate information from.
MeK - the People’s Mojahedin (leftist, terrorist tactics, based in emigration, in south-eastern Europe) - updated their site yesterday, says death toll “over 3000”. But it took them a day to get the information out, since they speak of Monday in the text but published on Tuesday.
As far as I could tell the Shah guy isn’t actually intent on becoming a monarch (he was fairly critical of his dad) but wants to help Iran transition towards democracy. How he does that, no clue.
Still, apparently that guy is the dude most Iranians trust to take over. I say most, but it’s still barely 30% iirc; Iranians are pretty disillusioned with their (potential) leaders at the moment.
Investigations by Haaretz and TheMarker reported the existence of an Israeli-linked influence network aimed at shaping Iranian public opinion and promoting Pahlavi as a potential post–Islamic Republic leader. The reports claim the network was operated by a private entity funded by Israeli government resources, used artificial intelligence, and relied on fake online accounts, particularly Persian-language profiles. The network allegedly recruited Persian speakers who reposted content from Reza Pahlavi.[99]
Whether or not he claims so, he’s pro-US and pro-Israel so they are pushing hard to restore the monarchy. Any support you see for him is likely astroturfed
Edit: besides, trusting an autocrat who promises to “transition to democracy at some point in the future” is the stupidest thing one can do during a popular uprising
His support numbers are certainly somewhat pushed up.
However, on Reddit (on the subreddit r/newiran, which I must note is disproportionately pro-Pahlavi) someone proposed a method of verifying how much of his support genuinely came from Iran.
They measured the drop in viewership of his videos at the beginning of the Internet blackout. They concluded that most viewers were from Iran, since traffic dropped several times with the blackout.
Apart from that, killing 12000 people is a huge effort even for a military using artillery and whatnot. If you have some military insight, just think of the logistics.
Or compare to the massacres Nazis did in WW2. Extreme cases like the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising had something like 20000 people killed on site, so you see how believing that they pulled of more than half of that here, without all the supporting context the nazis had, is not a given.
If the protests were widespread enough it’s not impossible to approach those kinds of numbers. That’s ~20 cities of 600 deaths spread over 2+ weeks. Other modern protest crackdowns have also been more about asserting power in full view of the world. This is a regime fully blocking media accountability while potentially fighting for its life.
The Nazis were also doing that with mostly bolt action rifles and some tanks and inaccurate artillery, mainly benefitting from shooting 430,000 people in a concentrated ghetto. Drones and modern weapons are much more deadly and are being deployed against cities with populations in the millions.
The west is really pushing for the Shah to take over, huh
There were some reports from Arak that workers started taking over factories. But no, what gets reported are some fringe monarchists.
Btw, the Iranian communist party talks of 600ish dead and 11000 arrested. Those seem more believable numbers. Protests seem to still be ongoing on a large scale, I hope they bring down the Ayatollah regime. All power to the workers!
The son of the shah (he hasn’t ruled as a shah, his father did) is a seemingly smart and politically competent person, who seems outwardly like a liberal democrat (but one can’t see into people).
His problem is that he isn’t part of a militant organization, and he was brought up in peace and plenty. They listen to his words and respect him, but he may not have the kind of colleagues to bring down the (quite bloodthirsty) ayatollah’s regime. :( Overthrowing a country requires lots of organized people who are considerably less polite.
They don’t update their sites as often as news organizations, and don’t have so many contacts to intgrate information from.
MeK - the People’s Mojahedin (leftist, terrorist tactics, based in emigration, in south-eastern Europe) - updated their site yesterday, says death toll “over 3000”. But it took them a day to get the information out, since they speak of Monday in the text but published on Tuesday.
As far as I could tell the Shah guy isn’t actually intent on becoming a monarch (he was fairly critical of his dad) but wants to help Iran transition towards democracy. How he does that, no clue.
Still, apparently that guy is the dude most Iranians trust to take over. I say most, but it’s still barely 30% iirc; Iranians are pretty disillusioned with their (potential) leaders at the moment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reza_Pahlavi,_Crown_Prince_of_Iran
Whether or not he claims so, he’s pro-US and pro-Israel so they are pushing hard to restore the monarchy. Any support you see for him is likely astroturfed
Edit: besides, trusting an autocrat who promises to “transition to democracy at some point in the future” is the stupidest thing one can do during a popular uprising
His support numbers are certainly somewhat pushed up.
However, on Reddit (on the subreddit r/newiran, which I must note is disproportionately pro-Pahlavi) someone proposed a method of verifying how much of his support genuinely came from Iran.
They measured the drop in viewership of his videos at the beginning of the Internet blackout. They concluded that most viewers were from Iran, since traffic dropped several times with the blackout.
A single video shows ~400 bodies piled up in one Tehran suburb.
What the honest fuck are your talking about 600ish sounds more believable? More believable based on what? Based on you dick riding the Ayatollah?
Based on other protests, probably?
Apart from that, killing 12000 people is a huge effort even for a military using artillery and whatnot. If you have some military insight, just think of the logistics.
Or compare to the massacres Nazis did in WW2. Extreme cases like the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising had something like 20000 people killed on site, so you see how believing that they pulled of more than half of that here, without all the supporting context the nazis had, is not a given.
Protests have occurred in approximately 180 towns and cities.
If the protests were widespread enough it’s not impossible to approach those kinds of numbers. That’s ~20 cities of 600 deaths spread over 2+ weeks. Other modern protest crackdowns have also been more about asserting power in full view of the world. This is a regime fully blocking media accountability while potentially fighting for its life.
The Nazis were also doing that with mostly bolt action rifles and some tanks and inaccurate artillery, mainly benefitting from shooting 430,000 people in a concentrated ghetto. Drones and modern weapons are much more deadly and are being deployed against cities with populations in the millions.
Maybe the Shah can run for President if the theocracy goes away…right?