Hello - the birthday problem is interesting but it has no bearing on a simple percentage probability. The reason the odds of two people having the same birthday don’t rise linearly with the number of people is that every time you add someone to the set you also add a new possible birthday to match. You get to compare them to every other member of the group for a chance to match. You’re not just adding 1/365 each time, trying over and over to hit one date. You’re adding new dates to hit as you go.
This doesn’t apply in a simple probability like “0.6% of people have a micropenis so if you know 300 people, odds are you know one.” You really are just adding 0.6 every time you consider one more person in the set.
Adding one more person adds more than one comparison. Assuming birthdays are evenly distributed (they aren’t), 2 people have a 1/365.25 chance of sharing a birthday. But adding a third person adds 2 more chances. Adding that 23rd person adds 22 more chances than adding the 22nd person. 1+2+3…+22=253 separate checks, of which only one needs to match.
I think the point is not how quickly can someone Google it but can he actually explain it, because he brought it up in a situation where it doesn’t apply, meaning he doesn’t actually understand it (ie can’t explain it).
Canconda’s original comment did not have the wiki link which is why I replied. Honestly, dropping 23 possible birthday pairs to reach >50% probability is still not intuitive to me.
Of my OG friend group of ~12 there are two matching birthday pairs. One coincidental and one pair of twins which don’t count.
Probability is bullshit. If you have 23 people in a room the chances of 2 of them having the same birthday are mathematically 50%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
edit: I keep forgetting you can’t make jokes without explaining them to redditors.
I even italicized “mathematic” out of reverence.
No saving y’all.
Hello - the birthday problem is interesting but it has no bearing on a simple percentage probability. The reason the odds of two people having the same birthday don’t rise linearly with the number of people is that every time you add someone to the set you also add a new possible birthday to match. You get to compare them to every other member of the group for a chance to match. You’re not just adding 1/365 each time, trying over and over to hit one date. You’re adding new dates to hit as you go.
This doesn’t apply in a simple probability like “0.6% of people have a micropenis so if you know 300 people, odds are you know one.” You really are just adding 0.6 every time you consider one more person in the set.
So… your comment is bullshit.
Damn must suck to be born without a sense of sarcasm.
Oh I was born with one of those. Also a bullshit detector, which is going off at your “I was joking” defense.
Can you explain the math?
Adding one more person adds more than one comparison. Assuming birthdays are evenly distributed (they aren’t), 2 people have a 1/365.25 chance of sharing a birthday. But adding a third person adds 2 more chances. Adding that 23rd person adds 22 more chances than adding the 22nd person. 1+2+3…+22=253 separate checks, of which only one needs to match.
So does this apply to the problem: 0.6% of people have micropenis. How many friends do you need to have before you’ll know someone?
It doesn’t seem to, because there isn’t any element of comparing them between each other. It’s just a straight percentage chance.
No I was making a joke and everyone decided they were gonna do a full autism about it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
Very easy to google ngl.
Wiki Birthday Problem
I think the point is not how quickly can someone Google it but can he actually explain it, because he brought it up in a situation where it doesn’t apply, meaning he doesn’t actually understand it (ie can’t explain it).
Canconda’s original comment did not have the wiki link which is why I replied. Honestly, dropping 23 possible birthday pairs to reach >50% probability is still not intuitive to me.
Of my OG friend group of ~12 there are two matching birthday pairs. One coincidental and one pair of twins which don’t count.
I can’t because probability is bullshit lol.
Damn you guys have no sense of humour.
If that was your idea of a joke, I’m afraid you have no idea what’s funny. More likely you are just attempting to laugh off your embarrassment.
Buddy if you tell jokes to make other people laugh… sorry that sucks. Wouldn’t’ wish that on my worst enemy.
I’m lmao and y’all are shitting bricks about math
You suck at math and we are lmao at your attempts to hide it.
THATS THE JOKE!!!
you daft ass mf