…The relatively small difference between Victoria, where public transport was free, and NSW – where fares remained unchanged – suggests price is not the main constraint on mode shift. Access, travel time, service reliability and the ability to make specific trips appear to matter more.
Car vs PT is pretty regularly going to be decided in favor of the car. The point of PT is to enable people to not need a car in the first place.
I abandoned my car several years ago, at the benefit of around $300-$400/month (once you add up car payment, insurance, gas, maintenance, parking, etc). Nowadays, it would probably be significantly more. I was able to replace that with a $65/month bus pass. My spouse still has their car, so we use that if needed. It’s been a real lifechanger.
I don’t know that PT is ever going to out-convenience a private car trip, barring things like car-free districts. It doesn’t have to - it just has to be useful enough for daily commuting that you can downsize your private vehicles (and save a bunch of money). If you aren’t looking to do that…welp.