I haven’t seen I, Robot, but if it’s something generally-akin to human-level intelligence, nobody will have a definitive answer, since we don’t know exactly what the technical problems that remain unsolved are. It’s not impossible that there could be some Eureka moment that suddenly makes everything work, but I would bet against the next decade. And I’m not saying “in ten years”, just that I don’t think that it’s something we will do within a ten-year window.
The stuff that we’ve been doing recently isn’t a fundamentally-new breakthrough, but incremental work. The hardware got better, and it reached the point where we could do some interesting things. I don’t think that we’re going to have human-level AI from just making increasingly-tweaked LLMs. I think that there are going to be fundamental technical improvements that have to happen. Right now, a lot of money is being spent to take advantage of the technical development that has happened thus far. I’m sure that that will find applications, that we’ll do things with it. But I don’t think that that alone is going to get us to human-level intelligence, and a lot of that money is not directly going towards developing human-level AGI, but towards making what we’ve developed so far have practical applications.
My guess is that there will probably be multiple layers of problems to solve. We solve the first one, then we find the next problem to solve. You probably won’t see some announcement that some team has just gone and “solved human-level AI” all at once.
I haven’t seen I, Robot, but if it’s something generally-akin to human-level intelligence, nobody will have a definitive answer, since we don’t know exactly what the technical problems that remain unsolved are. It’s not impossible that there could be some Eureka moment that suddenly makes everything work, but I would bet against the next decade. And I’m not saying “in ten years”, just that I don’t think that it’s something we will do within a ten-year window.
The stuff that we’ve been doing recently isn’t a fundamentally-new breakthrough, but incremental work. The hardware got better, and it reached the point where we could do some interesting things. I don’t think that we’re going to have human-level AI from just making increasingly-tweaked LLMs. I think that there are going to be fundamental technical improvements that have to happen. Right now, a lot of money is being spent to take advantage of the technical development that has happened thus far. I’m sure that that will find applications, that we’ll do things with it. But I don’t think that that alone is going to get us to human-level intelligence, and a lot of that money is not directly going towards developing human-level AGI, but towards making what we’ve developed so far have practical applications.
My guess is that there will probably be multiple layers of problems to solve. We solve the first one, then we find the next problem to solve. You probably won’t see some announcement that some team has just gone and “solved human-level AI” all at once.