I think Trump would’ve been distanced by most Republicans if he had lost, and the party would eventually move toward courting Latinos and diversity in general like they said they wanted to before Trump took over in 2016.
I completely disagree, and this is a crucial point. Trumpism is here to stay. His success was not a fluke or a one-off, but a product of existing trends and conditions, which are on track to get even worse.
People only like moderate politicians when things are going well. When things are going badly, people want change and they want explanations for why things went wrong. This is doubly true if things are going badly while a moderate figure is in charge.
The “moderate” establishment wing of the Republican party started a decades long war in Afghanistan that was extremely costly, accomplished nothing, and was a national humiliation. At the same time, economic growth (especially as perceived by the average person) has been slowing, due to income inequality and the difficulty of sustaining endless growth in an already developed economy. Bush failed so hard and became so unpopular that Democrats even got a short-lived trifecta in the backlash.
Liberals seem to be still clinging to what was “normal” 20 years ago, when there was bipartisan consensus (at least among politicians) regarding neoliberalism and things like invading Afghanistan. They see Trump’s deviation from that consensus as some kind of massive strategic error, alienating countless Republicans who still believe in that consensus, and the fact that it’s worked is some improbable fluke. That’s why they trotted out Dick Cheney of all people, a guy who is very directly tied to that consensus (and it’s failure), thinking he’d pick up support rather than alienating people. Because they don’t understand how the failure of the wars in the Middle East has changed the political landscape.
Trump provided a simple explanation for that failure that fit in with the right’s preexisting beliefs - the US failed because we had become “too woke,” and the solution was to double down on right-wing beliefs to fix the problems. The left could provide another explanation that’s actually based on reality, but the left has very little voice in politics. Instead, we get, “We failed because we were too woke” vs, “We didn’t really fail.” And people can see the failure (in both foreign and domestic policy), and many will sooner accept a wrong explanation for failure than an outright denial of it.
Obviously, Trump isn’t actually a real alternative or outsider, and this is evidenced by him going right back to starting stupid pointless wars in the Middle East. As he fails and becomes unpopular, it’s likely that his failure will be contextualized within the right-wing beliefs structure. You can look at Tucker Carlson or MTG to see that happening in real time. As long as there isn’t an alternative explanation provided, and as long as conditions continue declining even when the Democrats win, over time more and more people are going to look to the far-right.
That seems a little American-centric to me. Other countries have successfully voted themselves out of fascism. France with Le Pen, Hungary with Orban, I might even count Ukraine and Poroshenko, although that required a war too. We will see about the AfD in Germany and others of course, but Europeans clearly haven’t given up with democracy and still believe that fascism can be kept at bay through coalition building, compromising, and keeping the public informed.
Other countries have successfully voted themselves out of fascism. France with Le Pen, Hungary with Orban, I might even count Ukraine and Poroshenko, although that required a war too
There are left-wing parties in Europe that are able to present alternate explanations and a wider range of policy solutions. To defeat fascism through electoralism requires that, and that has not been permitted within the Democratic party.
There are left leaning blocs within the Democratic party too. The coalition governments that formed as a result of voting against fascists, Magyar, Zelenskyi, Macron, even Merz were all centrists leading a large coalition of pro-democracy politicians.
But the left has terms for joining those coalitions and are offered something in exchange. In America, they won’t even give us purely symbolic concessions line a Palestinian speaker at conviction.
I completely disagree, and this is a crucial point. Trumpism is here to stay. His success was not a fluke or a one-off, but a product of existing trends and conditions, which are on track to get even worse.
People only like moderate politicians when things are going well. When things are going badly, people want change and they want explanations for why things went wrong. This is doubly true if things are going badly while a moderate figure is in charge.
The “moderate” establishment wing of the Republican party started a decades long war in Afghanistan that was extremely costly, accomplished nothing, and was a national humiliation. At the same time, economic growth (especially as perceived by the average person) has been slowing, due to income inequality and the difficulty of sustaining endless growth in an already developed economy. Bush failed so hard and became so unpopular that Democrats even got a short-lived trifecta in the backlash.
Liberals seem to be still clinging to what was “normal” 20 years ago, when there was bipartisan consensus (at least among politicians) regarding neoliberalism and things like invading Afghanistan. They see Trump’s deviation from that consensus as some kind of massive strategic error, alienating countless Republicans who still believe in that consensus, and the fact that it’s worked is some improbable fluke. That’s why they trotted out Dick Cheney of all people, a guy who is very directly tied to that consensus (and it’s failure), thinking he’d pick up support rather than alienating people. Because they don’t understand how the failure of the wars in the Middle East has changed the political landscape.
Trump provided a simple explanation for that failure that fit in with the right’s preexisting beliefs - the US failed because we had become “too woke,” and the solution was to double down on right-wing beliefs to fix the problems. The left could provide another explanation that’s actually based on reality, but the left has very little voice in politics. Instead, we get, “We failed because we were too woke” vs, “We didn’t really fail.” And people can see the failure (in both foreign and domestic policy), and many will sooner accept a wrong explanation for failure than an outright denial of it.
Obviously, Trump isn’t actually a real alternative or outsider, and this is evidenced by him going right back to starting stupid pointless wars in the Middle East. As he fails and becomes unpopular, it’s likely that his failure will be contextualized within the right-wing beliefs structure. You can look at Tucker Carlson or MTG to see that happening in real time. As long as there isn’t an alternative explanation provided, and as long as conditions continue declining even when the Democrats win, over time more and more people are going to look to the far-right.
That seems a little American-centric to me. Other countries have successfully voted themselves out of fascism. France with Le Pen, Hungary with Orban, I might even count Ukraine and Poroshenko, although that required a war too. We will see about the AfD in Germany and others of course, but Europeans clearly haven’t given up with democracy and still believe that fascism can be kept at bay through coalition building, compromising, and keeping the public informed.
Please tell me this is a bit
There are left-wing parties in Europe that are able to present alternate explanations and a wider range of policy solutions. To defeat fascism through electoralism requires that, and that has not been permitted within the Democratic party.
There are left leaning blocs within the Democratic party too. The coalition governments that formed as a result of voting against fascists, Magyar, Zelenskyi, Macron, even Merz were all centrists leading a large coalition of pro-democracy politicians.
And the genocide wing does everything it can to oppose them instead of opposing the actual fascists centrists want to be.
You’re really trying to sell the ascension of genocidal demons like Merz as a reason to vote for liberals?
But the left has terms for joining those coalitions and are offered something in exchange. In America, they won’t even give us purely symbolic concessions line a Palestinian speaker at conviction.