The number of newborns in Japan fell below 700,000 for the first time since records began in 1899. The government data released Wednesday showed a 16th straight year of decline and it's faster than had been expected.
Might be worth noting that this is a huge swing from a bygone era of high infant and child death, such that women were expected to have children early and often in hopes that they could outperform the mortality rate. Population rates in Japan had been low and relatively flat for centuries. Then the industrial revolution and modern medicine dramatically reduced mortality rates, causing populations to climb rapidly for around a century.
Now we’re settling into a new normal of sub-replacement rate births (not no births by any stretch, just births slower than the post-40s boom years) and everyone’s freaking out like Japan won’t exist in another generation.
The Japanese people could likely support a higher population via socialist public policy. But they could also just have a smaller population going into the 21st century. It’s not like 123M is a magic number the nation needs to persist. If Japan’s population fell into the 80M mark, what’s the horrible thing that could happen? Koreans and Philippinos and Italians and Egyptians might be legally allowed to immigrate at last? Oh no!!! Death of a nation!!!
How big of an issue is that in Japan? I know that older people there tend to like being employed even into their senior years. I don’t know how much is out of necessity.
It’s a big issue. The problem is there are a large amount of elderly people and not enough young people to care for them and keep the economy going.
Population age graphs used to be a triangle. Lots of kids some adults and a few elderly. So there were a lot of people to care for a small number of the elderly and a big group to care for you when you became elderly.
These countries age graphs look like upside down pears. Lots of elderly some working and few children. So more work by the young to care for the elderly.
I agree that immigration is a big part of fixing this.
I think if the population (replacement rate )declines too swiftly, you have a lot of old people and few young people. At some point it become exponentially harder to even keep your last generation’s replacement rate, and you have spiraling population decline. See South Korea for the Speedrun.
If Japan steadily declines to 80M it could be fine. If Japan goes to 80M in a generation, that’s very very bad for the chances of there being any Japanese people left in a few more generations
I agree that immigration is a big part of fixing this.
It isn’t. Not for long at least, as the last large countries are currently finishing their own demographic transition and starting to shrink themselves.
Is the world’s population still growing? Yes. But the growth rate peaked in the 60s, it’s cratering just as fast as it spiked, and by 2100 thereabouts there will be overall shrinkage.
Also before we get at the question whether Japan wants to have lots of immigration, what about the question whether those people wouldn’t rather build their own countries.
There’s nothing wrong with the world’s population shrinking – and also not with it growing, the earth is far from its carrying capacity. What’s frightening is very quick population growth or shrinkage because it’s an absolute breeding ground for all kinds of inequalities and societal unrest.
Might be worth noting that this is a huge swing from a bygone era of high infant and child death, such that women were expected to have children early and often in hopes that they could outperform the mortality rate. Population rates in Japan had been low and relatively flat for centuries. Then the industrial revolution and modern medicine dramatically reduced mortality rates, causing populations to climb rapidly for around a century.
Now we’re settling into a new normal of sub-replacement rate births (not no births by any stretch, just births slower than the post-40s boom years) and everyone’s freaking out like Japan won’t exist in another generation.
The Japanese people could likely support a higher population via socialist public policy. But they could also just have a smaller population going into the 21st century. It’s not like 123M is a magic number the nation needs to persist. If Japan’s population fell into the 80M mark, what’s the horrible thing that could happen? Koreans and Philippinos and Italians and Egyptians might be legally allowed to immigrate at last? Oh no!!! Death of a nation!!!
They wouldn’t be able to afford retirement payments for their elderly population. That is the risk
How big of an issue is that in Japan? I know that older people there tend to like being employed even into their senior years. I don’t know how much is out of necessity.
It’s a big issue. The problem is there are a large amount of elderly people and not enough young people to care for them and keep the economy going.
Population age graphs used to be a triangle. Lots of kids some adults and a few elderly. So there were a lot of people to care for a small number of the elderly and a big group to care for you when you became elderly.
These countries age graphs look like upside down pears. Lots of elderly some working and few children. So more work by the young to care for the elderly.
Caring for them is entirely a different matter, but yes.
Filipinos. We’re not a cucumber.
I agree that immigration is a big part of fixing this.
I think if the population (replacement rate )declines too swiftly, you have a lot of old people and few young people. At some point it become exponentially harder to even keep your last generation’s replacement rate, and you have spiraling population decline. See South Korea for the Speedrun.
If Japan steadily declines to 80M it could be fine. If Japan goes to 80M in a generation, that’s very very bad for the chances of there being any Japanese people left in a few more generations
It isn’t. Not for long at least, as the last large countries are currently finishing their own demographic transition and starting to shrink themselves.
Is the world’s population still growing? Yes. But the growth rate peaked in the 60s, it’s cratering just as fast as it spiked, and by 2100 thereabouts there will be overall shrinkage.
Also before we get at the question whether Japan wants to have lots of immigration, what about the question whether those people wouldn’t rather build their own countries.
There’s nothing wrong with the world’s population shrinking – and also not with it growing, the earth is far from its carrying capacity. What’s frightening is very quick population growth or shrinkage because it’s an absolute breeding ground for all kinds of inequalities and societal unrest.
S. Korea has some of the highest populations per sqkm on the planet. One of the problems they’re facing is the lack of real estate.
A generation ago, people were talking about the perils of overpopulation, particularly in highly dense countries like Japan and Korea.
It’s so bizarre to see a marginal shift in trends lead people to extrapolate an extinction level event.