I mean the ability to survive it will be based on where you are located. And for the billions that are unable to survive it, they will either start wars with those who can, or will die in the process, or both.
Or peacefully migrate to areas that are sustainable and contribute to the project of rebuilding.
But, again, the capacity to build and supply life sustaining amenities and the political willingness to distribute them in order to curry political favor rather than just generate profit will be central to a country’s power projection into the late 21st century.
So where is that going to be? If the rest of the world doesn’t run that way (which isn’t possible), what do you think happens then? When sea rise lifts things a couple of meters, billions are displaced. You aren’t simply going to put them somewhere else. Europe currently is struggling with climate and war migrants, the US is the same.
the rest of the world doesn’t run that way (which isn’t possible)
It is possible. And the bitter irony is that it would be better for everyone on average. Just not better for a few specific people on the whole.
When sea rise lifts things a couple of meters, billions are displaced.
Where will they run to? Not the US Gulf Coast or the Dutch flatlands. Not to the low lying Caribbean Islands or the coastline of Japan or Australia.
The most Climate Change friendly regions are going to be high altitude but still retain access to lots of potable water. Curiously enough, that looks like… Iran, Venezuela, Afghanistan, and the Horn of Africa.
All those Western yahoos screaming about illegal immigrants are on track to become ones. And right back to the countries they spent generations pissing off.
Tell that to the vast swathes of the globe, including China, due to face lethal wet bulb temperatures within the next 10-20 years. Which, along with mass death, means massive breadbasket failures on multiple fronts. Ain’t politicking our way out of this one, chief.
Yeah, and someone was just arguing with me in a different thread saying vertical warehouse farming is stupid and we should just grow our crops in the ground outside 🙄
Like, I’m trying to be helpful here, but sure let’s continue to make no systemic changes to the way things are done and just be frustrated when our problems only continue to get worse…
One country is producing all of the world’s air conditioners. I wonder if they’re in a better position to endure wet-bulb temperatures than their peers.
Ain’t politicking our way out of this one, chief.
They absolutely can and will. This is a country that can build the infrastructure to keep people from dying of overheating. What’s more, this is the country that can export that infrastructure globally, such that its allies will see improved survivability. And that will have cascading knock-on effects.
The ability to survive climate change is the ability to operate as a global center of gravity.
I think you missed the ‘massive breadbasket failures’ part of my comment. You can’t air condition a field of rice. Well, you could, but good luck trying that on the scale needed to feed everyone once crops begin to fail globally.
You do realize how many people in the world live in houses that aren’t even fully-enclosed, right? Usually in some of the places that will be most impacted by climate change, too. Air conditioners won’t be of much help to them.
Also, do you know how much coal China burns each year?
Okay so just send in the Chinese with their concrete and bulldoze these people’s homes to build them nice new climate-controlled living spaces while also indebting them in higher amounts than they’re likely to make in their lifetimes.
Cause that’s different from colonialism how?
“Don’t worry, primitives, we’re here to surmount your obstacles for you. Because it’s totally our place to decide that.”
No, I’m just calling out the implications of your assertions.
You say,
It’s crazy that you treat this as an insurmountable obstacle. Much less that there’s no political cache in surmounting it.
How do you expect to surmount the obstacle? Just give them A/C units in their open-air homes? Or replace their homes with something enclosed and insulated? If it’s the latter, how do you expect to do that without demolishing the existing structures?
Or do you mean to force them off their lands and put them somewhere else where you built new houses?
You seem to be doing a lot of work to try to justify your initial insinuation that global warming somehow won’t affect the global south.
You scoff at wet bulb temperatures as if you have some easy obvious solution. Well, this is what your “solution” looks like in practice.
Are we talking about the same country here? Where in “southern” provinces like Sichuan there is no heating provided in buildings? And people rely on electric heaters and blankets to stay warm?
High temperatures don’t preclude large lifeforms. Just ask the dinosaurs.
But you need the ability to adapt at speed and scale for the entire ecological colony. You can’t rely on biomes that cater exclusively to a handful of apex predators.
The planet has been undergoing the 6th global extinction event in its history for over 30,000 years. During this time period, humanity has flourished even as millions of other species have died out.
Sure, until we used fossil fuels to accelerate our growth to absurd numbers, killed most other large wild mammal species, and started pumping ancient buried carbon into the atmosphere at a rate exceeding any other co2 related extinction event in the planet’s history.
Climate change doesn’t stop at the border, lol.
The ability to endure it and survive - even thrive - in the face of it will vary heavily based on national leadership.
I mean the ability to survive it will be based on where you are located. And for the billions that are unable to survive it, they will either start wars with those who can, or will die in the process, or both.
Or peacefully migrate to areas that are sustainable and contribute to the project of rebuilding.
But, again, the capacity to build and supply life sustaining amenities and the political willingness to distribute them in order to curry political favor rather than just generate profit will be central to a country’s power projection into the late 21st century.
So where is that going to be? If the rest of the world doesn’t run that way (which isn’t possible), what do you think happens then? When sea rise lifts things a couple of meters, billions are displaced. You aren’t simply going to put them somewhere else. Europe currently is struggling with climate and war migrants, the US is the same.
It is possible. And the bitter irony is that it would be better for everyone on average. Just not better for a few specific people on the whole.
Where will they run to? Not the US Gulf Coast or the Dutch flatlands. Not to the low lying Caribbean Islands or the coastline of Japan or Australia.
The most Climate Change friendly regions are going to be high altitude but still retain access to lots of potable water. Curiously enough, that looks like… Iran, Venezuela, Afghanistan, and the Horn of Africa.
All those Western yahoos screaming about illegal immigrants are on track to become ones. And right back to the countries they spent generations pissing off.
Tell that to the vast swathes of the globe, including China, due to face lethal wet bulb temperatures within the next 10-20 years. Which, along with mass death, means massive breadbasket failures on multiple fronts. Ain’t politicking our way out of this one, chief.
Yeah, and someone was just arguing with me in a different thread saying vertical warehouse farming is stupid and we should just grow our crops in the ground outside 🙄
Like, I’m trying to be helpful here, but sure let’s continue to make no systemic changes to the way things are done and just be frustrated when our problems only continue to get worse…
Europe wants to rebalance trade with Beijing, but can’t quit Chinese air conditioners
One country is producing all of the world’s air conditioners. I wonder if they’re in a better position to endure wet-bulb temperatures than their peers.
They absolutely can and will. This is a country that can build the infrastructure to keep people from dying of overheating. What’s more, this is the country that can export that infrastructure globally, such that its allies will see improved survivability. And that will have cascading knock-on effects.
The ability to survive climate change is the ability to operate as a global center of gravity.
I think you missed the ‘massive breadbasket failures’ part of my comment. You can’t air condition a field of rice. Well, you could, but good luck trying that on the scale needed to feed everyone once crops begin to fail globally.
You do realize how many people in the world live in houses that aren’t even fully-enclosed, right? Usually in some of the places that will be most impacted by climate change, too. Air conditioners won’t be of much help to them.
Also, do you know how much coal China burns each year?
It’s crazy that you treat this as an insurmountable obstacle. Much less that there’s no political cache in surmounting it.
Okay so just send in the Chinese with their concrete and bulldoze these people’s homes to build them nice new climate-controlled living spaces while also indebting them in higher amounts than they’re likely to make in their lifetimes.
Cause that’s different from colonialism how?
“Don’t worry, primitives, we’re here to surmount your obstacles for you. Because it’s totally our place to decide that.”
You appear to be suffering from an Israel moment
No, I’m just calling out the implications of your assertions.
You say,
How do you expect to surmount the obstacle? Just give them A/C units in their open-air homes? Or replace their homes with something enclosed and insulated? If it’s the latter, how do you expect to do that without demolishing the existing structures?
Or do you mean to force them off their lands and put them somewhere else where you built new houses?
You seem to be doing a lot of work to try to justify your initial insinuation that global warming somehow won’t affect the global south.
You scoff at wet bulb temperatures as if you have some easy obvious solution. Well, this is what your “solution” looks like in practice.
Are we talking about the same country here? Where in “southern” provinces like Sichuan there is no heating provided in buildings? And people rely on electric heaters and blankets to stay warm?
Kind of, I guess. Depends on if there any animals larger than a cat left after the temperature change stops and levels off.
Depends if we can adapt them quickly enough to survive.
Brazil has been dismantling our biotech sector for 20 years now, so I’m not optimist, but YMMV.
Anyway, I’m more optimist on avoiding problem than on dealing with it.
Yeah just do your best and help others while you’re here, lol.
High temperatures don’t preclude large lifeforms. Just ask the dinosaurs.
But you need the ability to adapt at speed and scale for the entire ecological colony. You can’t rely on biomes that cater exclusively to a handful of apex predators.
The rate of change is faster than any in the planet’s history, I don’t have high hopes for many species surviving.
The planet has been undergoing the 6th global extinction event in its history for over 30,000 years. During this time period, humanity has flourished even as millions of other species have died out.
Sure, until we used fossil fuels to accelerate our growth to absurd numbers, killed most other large wild mammal species, and started pumping ancient buried carbon into the atmosphere at a rate exceeding any other co2 related extinction event in the planet’s history.
Fertilizer has been at the heart of an enormous uptick in arable land and crop volume. That’s the direct result of fossil fuel infrastructure.
We are farther away from extinction than we’ve ever been.
Actually artificial fertilizer comes from the Haaber Bosch process, which uses fossil fuels to turn air into nitrogen.
Every species in overshoot seems to be as far from extinction as it ever was directly before the population crash, lol.
That, and natural resources. Idk how many freshwater lakes and rivers Mexico has but it’s not looking good for the ones they do have.