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Cake day: February 23rd, 2025

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  • If the goal is to destabilize the regime until it collapses and then we fund a friendly government into power, it might be doable if we can block their oil exports. But we just lifted sanctions on their oil, so they’ll never run out of money. China may be making shaheds now, so even if we bomb all of Iran’s military manufacturing infrastructure, they can probably keep buying weapons forever.

    Iran is very mountainous. This restricts the use of our biggest and best machines of war and gives them places to hide things. Iran is also big geographically and demographically, much larger than Iraq or Afghanistan. It’s also important to note that while the regime is not loved by many, they ALL really hate us. The regime is evil, but everyone west of Greece or so is a fucking demon to them. They have decent historical reasons to feel this way.

    Occupying them and achieving complete surrender is probably not going to happen, and if we try for it, it’ll cost massive shitloads of money we don’t have and probably also a lot of lives. The best thing that can happen is we bail and try to say we won. The worst is the president nukes them and Russia nukes us back on their behalf. What I think is most likely is a collapse in the dollar and a withdrawal afterwards.













  • The more I read and think about this war, the more I think there are two ways it can go down: Either we fuck off shortly and maybe pretend we won or something, or we struggle in this mess long enough for the dollar to collapse, and then fuck off due to century-defining internal suffering and strife.

    Iran is not a global superpower, but it is also not fucking around militarily, and it’s run by zealots who are comfortable turning the whole region into a flaming shithole just to burn us. I am not seeing a country ready to follow the behavioral patterns our military is built to achieve victory against.