You could have made this same analysis in 2000 and it would be equally valid.

Yes, the business world is willing to pay big bucks to reduce labour costs and that business case is solid.

But we already see that success is not determined by the size of the model, but by the data and providing and processing that data in a smart way to the AI. And the companies that are successful in this area are model agnostic. They can, and will, switch to cheaper to run models that are good enough for their purposes.

So the dogma that whoever has the biggest model wins, just doesn’t apply. AI is already hitting diminishing returns.

Once the investment money pumping the hype is gone, there will be a glut of capacity and a heavy price competition, which will drive down margins.

I will say that Israel is many times more evil than Hamas.

But Hamas definitely is evil, too.

They torture and kill Palestinians to maintain power. They had even smuggled a Yezidi slave girl into Gaza.

Of course, I do understand that they are resisting oppression. And that is justified. And I also know that a lot of the propaganda against them is false, such as the beheaded babies thing.

But there are enough credible reports of them doing really shady stuff.

And China basically has a monopoly on Siberia with the current arrangements.

Officially, yes.

Orban is just being Orban.

But Poland said they wouldn’t arrest him either and the new German chancellor also said the same.

It’s only genocide if you starve white kids.

I agree. Almost no one is pro-Hamas. They are definitely evil.

Still, doesn’t justify starving kids, bombing kids and withholding medicine which forces doctors to amputate kids without anaesthesia.

You don’t ‘need’ Russia, but it’s mutually beneficial to have them on your side.

Why would Russia risk alienating China?

In realpolitik, China is the more desirable partner than the USA.

To know how exactly it works, we’d need to know details that aren’t public.

But just speculating, if the creditors value the combined xAI+X higher than just X, then there is room to transfer the loan to the new company and away from Tesla.

But whatever the details are, Elon isn’t an idiot when it comes to money. He definitely has advisors who cooked up the optimal way to profit from the AI hype.

And the essence of that is that Tesla shareholders will be left holding the bag, while Elon utiizes X/xAI to capitalize on the hype.

I actually agree with you, they definitely have the edge, but I still am skeptical that they will be able to maintain their valuation.

I just don’t see a world where most people are coughing up more than $10 a month for AI.

Most people will only use free AI and companies will mostly buy cheap AI.

Running Deepseek locally is basically free. That’s the competition.

Bingo.

And also depends on which side China is on. Their war production dwarfs even the US, and I find it difficult to believe that it will all be spent fighting the US and Taiwan.

There is a very real possibility that these three countries gang up together and divide the world among themselves.

End of the decade is 31-12-2029, which is about 4.7 years away, not 10.

10 years would be “within/in/over a decade”.

I definitely see Google/Amazon/Microsoft shedding a huge amount of market cap when the time comes to write-off the 100s of billions they invested the past two years.

They just don’t have any feasible path to recouping those investments.

Sure, they’ll never go fully broke, that’s just a nice word for emphasis.

Correct.

It’s actually a smart move.

The dumb money are those pouring hundreds of billions into the AI hype. This is .com bubble on steroids.

And sure, AI obviously is becoming an important market, but it will not be the current leaders who will dominate the tech. Like the internet, it’s just too easy to catch up for competitors. Pouring $100B into AI today will only mean you lose out to the $1B startup in 2 years. The incumbents will go broke.

The point is to kill and torture these people. Calling them terrorists is a tried and true tactic.

They will call him Hamas whether he confesses or not and then say they killed another Hamas terrorist.

Read up on Orania. The South-African government doesn’t harass those Afrikaners trying to have their own little closed community.

And honestly, I think that approach is the best. If right wing people want to self-segregate in gate communities without harming anyone, then I think that’s the least bad option.

Of course, I think that’s implied.

The US cut funding, so there will be no offices or personnel in the US to influence anything.

They could have had all the hostages back in October. Hamas just wanted back the hostages that Israel holds.

And again, they could have had all the hostages back in May.

Netanyahu seems committed to genocide and the hostages are collateral damage.

It’s deranged and I am ashamed our western leaders are cheerleading this.