I’m not thinking ‘they couldn’t possibly lead the polls’, don’t put words in my mouth. I did look it up, and all I’m saying is a few percentage points ahead (only since a couple of months, mind you) is definitely not a ‘clear lead’. It may even be within the margin of error. I’ve also noticed extreme right/populist parties tend to be somewhat underpolled (at least in the USA, and also in my own country). So it would behoove you to be a little more cautious.