Germany is not heading toward a Trump style regime. The big Conservative Party CDU has not forming a coalition with the AfD as a rule. The other parties will also do everything to keep AfD from power. Of course that doesn’t mean this can’t change. The current political climate is still favorable to the AfD and they are able to consolidate and expand their operations and supporters.

The AfD is big and has success in elections both local and federal. However there are internal factions, that don’t fully agree. A national-libertarian-conservative wing faces a völkisch neo-fascist wing. The AfD has not found their great charismatic leader like Trump yet. It could fracture as well.

The next federal elections are in four years. The current government has to be able to present some major achievements in the areas of cost of living, migration, and especially the economy. An end to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza would also help.

Even if the AfD becomes the biggest party in the next federal elections, a government of national unity or a minority government is more likely.

Institutions and laws in Germany are designed to prevent a fascist takeover. Of course this is no guarantee.

There’s also an ongoing attempt at making the AfD an illegal organization opposed to the state. A success there would mean it would have to disband and couldn’t participate in elections.

The political climate in Germany is more polarized than it used to be, but it’s not at US levels.