There’s also nothing to indicate that Iran would completely reopen the strait even if the US up and fucked off. What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
The US sunk 16 of their mine laying ships and has been having to shoot down mine laying drones. No one really going through so no real idea about how many if any mines have gotten through.
I do believe we sank them before they were active along with or near in time to the first decapitation strike. Personally no idea about whether they have more.
What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
If the US fucks off, then Iran is left in a powerful negotiation position. They could use this incident to help normalize relations with other gulf states by pointing out how the US and Israel started the fight, then left them all high and dry. They could make non-agression and safe passage deals with the gulf states as well as exhert real pressure against the normalization of relations with Israel.
There’s also nothing to indicate that Iran would completely reopen the strait even if the US up and fucked off. What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
And just like that…
Exactly! In for a penny, in for a pound. Iran will likely punish their neighbors who’ve been hosting US bases further before a ceasefire.
And even if Iran changed their minds, it’s not like the mines will just disappear
They didn’t release mines (yet) though? Or am I out of the loop?
The US sunk 16 of their mine laying ships and has been having to shoot down mine laying drones. No one really going through so no real idea about how many if any mines have gotten through.
Is that verified and were the ships actually in operation? All I saw was “inactive mine-laying ships”
The count I saw is that Iran has something like 450 ships in operation prior to the start of this war.
I do believe we sank them before they were active along with or near in time to the first decapitation strike. Personally no idea about whether they have more.
Careful with that “we” there.
Where do you think we are right now?
The fascist states of America where you at
There have been some, but I’m not sure to which extent.
If the US fucks off, then Iran is left in a powerful negotiation position. They could use this incident to help normalize relations with other gulf states by pointing out how the US and Israel started the fight, then left them all high and dry. They could make non-agression and safe passage deals with the gulf states as well as exhert real pressure against the normalization of relations with Israel.
EDIT:
Less than a day later…
Long term it’s better for Iran if stuff keeps flowing through and nobody moves away or pipelines around the Strait.
Before that was just economically infeasible, but now it’s being shown as a massive vulnerability and there’s no going back.
Unless Iran can make it look so expensive by comparison again.