April 13, 2026
On Sunday, it happened: Viktor Orban was defeated. In an election with the highest voter turnout in Hungarys democratic history, Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party won a two-thirds supermajority, enough to alter the constitution that Orban had rewritten to shore up his power.
Some admirers of Orban have argued that the fact that he lost proves he was never an autocrat to begin with. What it really demonstrates, however, is that opposition to Fidesz was so strong it was able to overwhelm all the structures Orban put in place to protect his rule: wildly distorted voting districts, a captured media, state-sponsored propaganda, local patronage networks, and widespread threats and intimidation.
This is encouraging, in that things in Hungary got bad enough to oust the dictator. Sadly, I think it will take the coming financial collapse to change enough minds to oust Trump, and that ouster can only happen if Trump is unable to cement his grip on power, which he is working hard to do.
The US would already have been in recession if it wasn’t pumping hundreds of billions into the hugely unprofitable AI bubble.
This recent blockade at Hormuz is another move to pump the US economy, since the US produces a lot of oil, and is also selling at the very high market rate.
That regular people are paying for it is just annoying details.
That little annoying detail is likely to cost them the midterms.
Because, apparently, despite everything their base has put up with already, high gas prices are the one thing they will not tolerate. They’re either very confident in their ability to cheat in the midterms, or they’ve made a very grave mistake.
This might be naive but it seems like cheating can only tip things so far in their favour. Perhaps in North Korea you can have Kim elected with 99% support, but aparently you cant just make up the numbers in the US.
I expect things will get desperate in the coming months.
I suspect Trump will try heavy handed public policy, like interfering with interest rates, or handouts for business. Then maybe even a false flag incident in September or so, intending to declare a national emergency.
!remindme in 6 months