You must log in or register to comment.
Poor fella. Put nvidia on food stamps I guess.
Chinese AI labs kinda seem like a plot twist in LLM evolution. Their models are quite capable now. They’re not at the levels of American labs’ flagship models yet, but the gap has been narrowing quite a lot.
When OpenAI and Anthropic models are only marginally better, but much pricier, then I would think they’ll gradually shed users (followed by investors).
Ironically, I could imagine a possibility of Nvidia “saving” American AI. If they can take the lead with Nemotron (in like a “post-OpenAI/Anthropic” future when open-source models dominate), then maybe they can survive on chip sales… Though they’d probably have to compete with Chinese chips at that point.
I have no love for the Chinese Government, but boy do I hate American oligarchs more.
They paid for this. They bribed and colluded and this is what they got.
4D chess6D cheeseGood thing you spend last year sucking his little mushroom, Jensen.
Uh wait uh Mr Jacket Clown Man, wasn’t this kind of your plan?
You… you’re on the advisory panel.
For AI policy.
… ?
In the future, memory will cost nothing because we will just assume no human beings have any.
- Mr Jacket Clown Man, at some point, presumably.
Good.
I hope he trips over a curb and shatters his mandible.
All this means is that China is now spinning up their own lithography machines so you’ll eventually be able to buy a 512GB stick of DDR5 on Alibaba for $8 + $20 shipping.
ASML makes the machines and they’re restricted from exporting to China. Does China have the capability to make comparable ones itself?
A lot of companies make lithography machines, ASML just makes the best ones.
As of 2023, China has domestic companies who have made 28nm process nodes: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinas-first-28nm-capable-scanner-to-be-delivered-by-end-of-2023
This was top of the line around 2010. So in consumer tech terms: Apple’s A7 SoC (iPhone 5S, iPad Air), Intel Sandy Bridge/AMD Bristol Ridge and DDR3 RAM .
They have better machines in production, they just cannot manufacturer them domestically. Using those machines they’re producing:
- 14nm (2014-2019 era, Intel Broadwell-Coffee Lake, Ryzen 1000/2000, DDR4), Mass produced by SMIC
- 7nm (2018-2021, Apple A12/A13, AMD Ryzen 3000/5000, faster DDR4), Limited production at SMIC
- 5nm (2020-2023 iPhone 12-15, AMD Zen4, DDR5-4800), currently in development/low yields ~20%
They do not have any EUV (sub-5nm) capacity domestically.
China isn’t that far behind current generation chips and most people are probably using devices with 14/7nm chips in them due to the AI bubble eating up all of the newest process chips and driving prices out of reach of consumers.
deleted by creator
insha’Allah.
This is what happens when there are zero reliable reporters to call bullshit, CEOs make shit up and no-one checks their work. It’s just ‘Jensen Huang says’.
Shocker, cut China off from US designed (not manufactured) chips and they make their own (capitalist competition, remember that old thing), still coming up to speed, but soon, and I’d like some DDR5 (or 6) SamA you dick.
The only thing at play for these pricks is the ‘CUDA moat’ (and the lack of effort from AMD’s RocM, also, you wouldn’t believe how amenable that [ironically] is to LLM coding), and a few hardware tricks (it’s just compute, catch up will happen), but if there’s someone outside your duopoly that dog won’t continue to hunt. Bad thing when a vasty majority of US GDP is AI BS. Shame you’ve got an idiot rampaging through the world markets for a relative pittance (but actual fortune) from insider trading. Who would have thought that’d go badly long term.
Back to weapons for you, and your military doesn’t know how to make a cheap (anything) drone.
And American attitude is turning the world away from them. If China comes up with good chips, I think they have a huge market. People dont trust US technology now.
Huawei made excellent laptops until US shut them down. Its always the US. And they are always spreading fear about China spying, while having backdoors into American technology themselves.
Lets not forget Moore’s law is dead. There are no more die shrinks to be had. We’re measuing gates with atoms.
The dog is doomed.
Wasn’t that the whole point of the export policy? So it hasn’t backfired, it’s working exactly as intended.
My reading of his strategic sense when saying it backfired, is not expecting Deepseek or the greater push for open source lightweight models. Also NVIDIA would love to make a lot of money in China.
Bullshit. They are just funneling the sales through other countries to bypass export control. Oligarch just trying to make false numbers to pump up “potential” future market gains for stock manipulation.
A lot is based in Singapore. There was a story a few days ago about how China nixed the sale of a Singapore-based AI company to Meta.
Hmmmm, I think I’ll have to ask Justin help me express my feelings
Most of the policies from this administration are failing.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that the company’s market share of AI accelerators in China has now dropped to 0%. The drop is staggering, given that the company owned a lion’s share of China’s AI accelerator market just about two years ago.
“In China, we have now dropped to zero,” said Jensen Huang in an interview with the Special Competitive Studies Project, a bipartisan initiative by American lawmakers aimed at ensuring long-term competitiveness of the U.S. “Conceding an entire market the size of China probably does not make a lot of strategic sense, so I think that has already largely backfired. Maybe it made sense at the time, but I think the policy really needs to be dynamic and needs to stay with the times. I think it would be fairly safe to say that having American chip companies and other companies in China makes a lot of sense.”
It never made any sense…
China used Nvidia because that’s what it had, but they have virtually no patent law and a giant workforce experienced at making chips
Any idiot could have predicted if you cut China off from Nvidia chips, they’d use their own, quickly surpass Nvidia, leaving Americans not being able to ripoff Chinese progress, unless we get our hands on the new Chinese chips if they’re not direct ripoffs of what Nvidia is doing.
Even if they start that way, it’s a fork. China will do things that Nvidia isn’t.
Eventually they’ll diverage enough to separate, unless Nvidia is copying China, which means they’ll always be a lag.
American’s corporate structure is what can’t compete with China. Our corporations own our government, in China the government owns the corporations. And with a one party government that doesn’t have to worry about elections, they can plan decades or longer at a time. Corps by definition only care one financial quarter at a time.
Both countries have rampant corruption and can do a lot better, but having a government in charge of corps will always work out better than corps running a government.
The problem is American corps would rather lose if the only way to win is give up their power in America. Hell, we already saw with Chinese EVs that corps can just make the government outlaw competitors so they don’t have to compete and maintain profits.
If a government controlled corporations, theyd be ok with domestic companies being forced to adapt, or go out of business and be replaced by a new one. In America corporations can no longer fail, and that will eventually cause the country to fail if it’s not fixed.
Two parties is bad enough. I will never, ever trust a one-party government. That’s like — what if conspiracy theories, but they are just public policy? Frankly not unlike our government currently, but I’d prefer more parties than fewer.
Two wings of the same bird of prey, unfortunately.
More parties is a disaster. The Netherlands is a prime example. Hundreds of parties so no one ever has majority which means they always have to do a coalition. And if course that means hardly anything gets done because there is never consensus. And you can count how many times in the last decade, the Dutch government either resigned or fell. That is why it’s a bit of mess and people have totally lost faith in politics in the Netherlands. The Dutch actually have a real pedophile party - much smaller than the Republican party in the US - but still. There is a pirate party, animal party, party against citizens.
At least in China, shit gets done. There are 5,10, 15 and 25 year plans and generally the government doesn’t deviate from it. Of course every year they discuss and make adjustments but the main points remain. In China’s case it’s self reliance, green energy, technology, infrastructure and social security and services. Makes it easier for business to better anticipate and innovate as you know what the goals are.
Dutch voting form the size of a newspaper
That photo shows a paper with all eligible representatives for all eligible parties for that election. We don’t have “hundreds of parties” (although we have, IMO, too many — but a fair few of them are splinter fractions on the right).
Don’t spread bullshit, please.
One-party is awesome for you if who you like is in power (or you don’t even think about it). But when they aren’t and/or times are not good, the only way to change is through coup or civil war…not fun, especially in complex societies.
I will never, ever trust a one-party government
It depends on the party. Being able to pick from of a dozen different parties of capital is no different from picking from a dozen brands of peanut butter that came out of the same factory.
No single party won’t eventually turn into a mess. Authoritarianism is never going to end well for the population.
Depends on how democratic the mechanisms of the party is. Cuba’s party has only become more democratic as time has gone on, and resulted in better outcomes for the people and enshrining gay rights in a constitutional referendum, which passed with 90%+ in favor. China’s party has certainly became more democratic than in the 2000s when politicians were openly controlled by business.
It’s not useful to analyze parties and states in a vacuum independent of each other, the ultimate proof of how democratic a system is is whether its results favor the people or capital.
Yea when one of the “became more democratic” also involve persecution and incarceration of ethnic groups, it has failed. Again, authoritarianism doesn’t work. You may have stints where it seems okay from the outside but it won’t end in the favor of the people.
No system that challenges Western hegemony could ever “work” so long as your perspective is grounded in its propaganda.
Say whatever you want about the west, it doesn’t automatically make authoritarianism good or better.
Any idiot could have predicted if you cut China off from Nvidia chips, they’d use their own, quickly surpass Nvidia, leaving Americans not being able to ripoff Chinese progress, unless we get our hands on the new Chinese chips if they’re not direct ripoffs of what Nvidia is doing.
I agree the policy never made sense, but Chinese chips are still a few generations behind and will remain that way for a while.
China currently has a physical limit to transistor size that is enforced by the physics of their lithography machines. They are doing everything they can to use export-controlled ASML technology including rebuilding prior generational tech from the second-hand market, but that is a.K2-level sheer-face climb. Considering how much unique knowledge ASML and TSMC have, even corporate espionage can’t fill in those gaps probably for a decade.
They absolutely are using homegrown chips that are lower quality and making up for it in quantity, however, using older lithography.
but Chinese chips are still a few generations behind and will remain that way for a while.
Buddy…
That’s the problem.
China has “worse” chips, but they’re finding ways to make them beat the “best” chips…
If China still used Nvidia, then others could rip off their gains in code and training.
But once Chinese chips are different enough, then all of the Nvidia line the west is sinking money into at an unprecedented rate becomes the guy who sank his inheritance into a Betamax rental store.
All those data centers, manufacturing, everything, obsolete.
But American companies won’t admit that, because then they stop making money. And they control the American government, so no one will stop them.
We’re going full speed towards a massive technological deadend, because the people driving the bus know that if they crash, they can make the government use our tax money to bail them out.
We did it, Patrick! Nvidia no longer has a foothold on China!
