cross-posted from: https://piefed.social/c/technology/p/1510557/openai-needs-to-raise-at-least-207bn-by-2030-so-it-can-continue-to-lose-money-hsbc-esti
(Original link. Warning: log in required)
In the first half of 2025, AI made up 92% of GDP growth. AI companies make up about 1/3 of the total value of the stock market. Nvidia alone makes up 7%. There will 100% be a bailout.
We need to say it now already, loud and clear:
No bailouts for AI
They want to gamble with new technology nobody asked for, go right ahead. But don’t expect taxpayers to “save the economy” instead of putting these fraudsters in prison
Then Trump does it anyway
,maybe ask nvidia for money.
I want openAI to go bankrupt much as the next guy, but even without them this GenAInand LLM shit is here to stay I’m afraid.
Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Oracle are all highly profitable companies with cash to burn, so the best case we can hope for is for the hype to die and the investments to slow down.
Currently the whole system is kept alive with pure hype. AMD and OpenAI make a deal, if certain conditions are met OpenAI can buy AMD stocks for a penny a piece (if they buy this many chips etc) but just with the deal becoming public their stock prices jump up. There is no business done here yet, no revenue made, but the expectation of it is enough to bring in techbro and financebro money.
rip bozo
If OpenAI is losing money why is Sam Altman a billionaire?
He doesn’t need to sell anything he just gets a billion dollars loan with his stock as collateral.
Good question, I guess when you reach to a certain point of being rich. The government subsidize your lifestyle itself and it will try to keep it that way as long as it can, in other words socialism for the rich.
I guess the reasoning for this is to keep the status quo or if they do fail may cause economic collapse. Though in the first place it’s the government fault allowing them to do so much damage and essentially hostage the whole economy.
probably if he sold of his stocks a while ago then maybe?
The magic of the rich!
it’s much worse than stated here
starting point is to put user numbers on an S-curve that by 2030 reaches 3bn, “equivalent to 44 per cent of the world’s adult population” ex China.
while article says OpenAI has 800m users (who’ve used service as curiosity), its statement of 40m paid users is extremely exaggerated. 5m paid users is a high end estimate. There is ample free AI use/access.
The problem with all LLM makers is that it is an extreme competition field, and there is 0 moat to switching providers if users are smart (ie. all tools that use LLMs can switch to a different one under the hood, and you should use those front end tools or basic web interface). Google, Anthropic released better models this week, and last month Qwen and Kimi released better models than gpt 4, and other US models.
Unlike MS Office that has a 3 year release schedule, with UI and file format lock in, these models are replaced every 3-4 months, with no switching obstacles, and old model essentially thrown away.
It’s simply too much to ask investors/world that a company with no money is going to perpetually dominate a field where rest of world has far more money and talent than it does. Even if one of its releases does dominate, the reign will last a matter of weeks, and models are often used to train other cheaper models.
The AI companies with extortion power are TSMC, memory makers, and for now, NVIDIA. Downstream has no competitive advantage. Even your AI girlfriend will get swapped for a newer hotter model.
I just can’t help but think there are better ways to use that money.
How can a company started as a non-profit, have a subsidiary that is for profit? (Restructure this year). So basically like a quarter of the company is staying non-profit, and the rest is becoming for profit, and that’s the portion external investors like Microsoft own stake in.
It just sounds like tax fraud from the start. “Legal tax holes” where the end costs will come out of the populations pockets and not the companies
Meanwhile NVIDIA is pulling an Enron by investing in companies that exist to purchase NVIDIA products, thereby funding their own revenue. Just plain old fraud.
And the vast majority of global investments touch the US stock market, which is now just like 5 companies committing blatant fraud.
Almost makes me glad to be poor and unable to invest XD
If there was something else to get out into sure, but as a broke person who can’t invest, I sure wish I had something that will be able to be traded if there is a collapse. My only fall back is my chickens. Figure if all goes to hell I’m sure I can make it a few months off eggs water and multivitamins. Really need to find a consistent source of fiber/vitamins like vitamin C. Probably need to get my strawberry patch back going, blackberries and such would be good additions, but harvesting enough to store/ through the seasons would be tough.
I don’t think there would be an actual full collapse, I just figure I have to assume I wont ve ablr to afford anything beyond rent/utilities. Then when I can buy necessities
For vitamin c, pine needle tea is a source that’s easily available most places, and effectively free where it is available. It requires almost no effort to grow/harvest. You just find a pine tree, grab some needles, then throw them in a pot of boiling water.
Bot the most appetizing thing, but if you are in survival mode then it’s an option.
You can get vitamin C from a bunch of plants. Look for commonly foraged greens in your area and chances are you can find something with some vitamin c.
Why would I not get it from strawberries, blackberries and such? I live to far north for oranges and such, not to mention trees take years to mature for harvest. Strawberries I figure I planted a couple years ago and can just expand, blackberries people say spread easily. Broccoli might be an option, I’m not big on collard greens but they are around the area. Spinach should grow here fine. I suppose you could can that stuff as well. I usually do Peppers and tomatoes, but those don’t have vitamin C I dont think.
Forgot, quash/zucchini/cucumbers grow well here.
I’ll have to check what nutrition they have
Because of the storage issues, greens generally have a much longer growing season.
I just mean that you should look up the plants now in case you aren’t able to get the berries regularly. Tomatoes have some vitamin C, but peppers have a whole bunch.
Squash I can often make last a couple days worth of meals. Depending on the squash you can roast it like a chicken parmesan, just skip the cheese (yikes). My second year here I grew around 100s cucumbers on accident from a 8x4 plot. So I could pickle cucumbers and then dehydrate some for chips, something entertaining for winter snacks
Not just investing. They’re literally offering to buy any unused compute from these companies. So if they can’t sell the processing power NVidia chips provide, NVidia will pay them for it.
LOOOOOOOOL
That’s how Mozilla works too…
Mozilla is just as big of a scam and has had presence here on lemmy from the beginning. Anyone who thinks FireFox isn’t a remote control car driven by Google and does there bidding is lying to themselves in my opinion. (It will get downvoted here) But if someone pays all your bills to stay alive, you aren’t doing anything but what they say. If Mozilla wants to be a company that has something to say, they need to cut their contracts with Google. Up to 85% of revenue from Firefox comes from Google. Or as people like to say on here… if 20 people sit down at a table, and 17 are “Nazis” the other 3 are as well.
So if Google is bad, Firefox is as well
You’re probably not going to be downvoted for this. It’s a commonly held opinion here. It’s just that Firefox is the only other option than Google. It’s not ideal, but it’s better.
and forks depend on mozillas survival too.
deleted by creator
I have no idea what you were trying to say…
no one likes mozilla but we tolerate it because its the only option we have
I hope it dies
So 1B/week?? 🤯
The most excellent part is the pricing for it was made up by Altman based on “feels”.
Burn Rate = “Wildfire Rate”
Wording it that way does really put it in perspective. Absolutely insane estimates for what they “need” to continue operating for the next ~4 years.
A trade offer from Open AI: I recieve all of your tax money. You receive : environmental catastrophe, neglected infrastructure, no public spending. And maybe, a shitty AI waifu.
Shouldn’t be a problem, considering that AI is so great that obviously in the future everybody will want to use it for everything they do all the time at any cost.
Also even if they fail despite the totally accurate predictions of future, government will help them out in an act of representing the masses’ will.
Burn! Baby! Burn through all that cash.
sounds preddi gud-
