Well, ‘NATO’ as defined today can’t exist if any NATO member attacked another one, just from how the organization is defined as it is, that wasn’t a possibility it was defined to be capable of handling.
A “just like NATO, but not specifically NATO” that excludes the US I could imagine forming soon enough for it to be essentially an equivalent thing.
But knowing politicians, they had better have drafts of what that specifically should be ready to go, because politicians might just take forever to settle details of what should be a straightforward arrangement. For example, reworking it so that removing a member is actually defined, and that accepting a new member does not require perfectly unanimous agreement.
I think it would just break down in THIS event: No country would want to stand against US for an icy island that isn’t their own. So one after the other would just let Greenland fall to the US, and that would practically mean the NATO is done - because there would be proof that the treaty doesn’t help in a real case.
Of the things that would trigger a Civil War, I think Greenland is low on the list. Wildly unpopular but not the existential domestic threat that would trigger the people to go hot. ICE and domestic military deployment, particularly if he declares no elections, that has potential, but no foreign event is going to sway the domestic population that much, only domestic events have that strong an effect. That sort of thing can matter at the ballot box, but isn’t enough to make people go to the ammo box.
Maybe you get some European powers to conduct clandestine operations against key US leadership, maybe someone like Stephen Miller gets assassinated by a foreign power, I don’t know. More likely, they make moves that royally screw the US over economically. But I don’t think a civil war or direct military conflict with a foreign power is in the cards over Greenland.
You think a NATO without the US could not exist at all?
Well, ‘NATO’ as defined today can’t exist if any NATO member attacked another one, just from how the organization is defined as it is, that wasn’t a possibility it was defined to be capable of handling.
A “just like NATO, but not specifically NATO” that excludes the US I could imagine forming soon enough for it to be essentially an equivalent thing.
But knowing politicians, they had better have drafts of what that specifically should be ready to go, because politicians might just take forever to settle details of what should be a straightforward arrangement. For example, reworking it so that removing a member is actually defined, and that accepting a new member does not require perfectly unanimous agreement.
I think it would just break down in THIS event: No country would want to stand against US for an icy island that isn’t their own. So one after the other would just let Greenland fall to the US, and that would practically mean the NATO is done - because there would be proof that the treaty doesn’t help in a real case.
Invading Greenland is overwhelmingly unpopular among Americans. Trump invading Greenland might even trigger a US civil war.
Interesting point. From my external view, a US civil war looks to be on the verge anyway
Of the things that would trigger a Civil War, I think Greenland is low on the list. Wildly unpopular but not the existential domestic threat that would trigger the people to go hot. ICE and domestic military deployment, particularly if he declares no elections, that has potential, but no foreign event is going to sway the domestic population that much, only domestic events have that strong an effect. That sort of thing can matter at the ballot box, but isn’t enough to make people go to the ammo box.
Maybe you get some European powers to conduct clandestine operations against key US leadership, maybe someone like Stephen Miller gets assassinated by a foreign power, I don’t know. More likely, they make moves that royally screw the US over economically. But I don’t think a civil war or direct military conflict with a foreign power is in the cards over Greenland.
I wouldn’t hold my breath on that, tbh…
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