The title of the graphic is a bit misleading. What it shows is the impact that different vote counting systems would’ve had on the distribution of seats in parliament for the vote shares that resulted from the 2024 election. What it doesn’t show is an actual prediction of election results. Even computing the alternative vote seat distributions is not going to be exact because AMS as it’s usually defined is a two-vote system, where it is possible to “split” ones vote between two party tickets, and this cannot be emulated without actually having these voting results.
Surprised to see AMS with an uneven split like 68:32. Can someone explain or summarize what the arguments in favor of this would be?
Proportional representation ftw
Ehhh…the thing is that a different voting system would almost certainly also change how the parties and other organizations campaign and how people vote.
On the surface I have no problem wuth that 😃 I suppose nobody knows exactly how it will play out, though
To explain it. The top part is the actual percentage of votes.
The “first past the post” is the system in use. This shows just how much of a shitty system it is.
How is this calculated? Wouldn’t people vote differently in a different system? What system does the UK have now that allows this calculation?
Very misleading. There is no way to know the results of STV from the results taken under the current system without actually carrying out an STV election. We would expect to see many more votes for third-parties under such a system.
They used YouGov polling to fill out the missing data (though they do acknowledge the limitations, including tactical voting) https://electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/a-system-out-of-step-the-2024-general-election
@TheBlackLounge@lemmy.world since you asked about this in your comment
Not from the UK, so I don’t know what the parties are. But irregardless, one of these is not like the other.
How do all these types of electoral systems work? And is there a proper accurate one?
FPTP: you get one vote, and each constituency elects one representative. Whoever has the most votes in each constituency wins, every other candidate in the constituency gets nothing.
AMS: Like FPTP, but with an extra layer of regional elections. The results of the regional are weighted towards parties that got a lower number of seats in the FPTP section than their share of the votes (so a party that comes second or third a lot but rarely wins in FPTP will do well). This isn’t completely proportional, but it does shift the results a bit towards proportionality and makes it so that votes for non-winning candidates still have some effect.
STV: Instead of voting for one person, you rank the available choices. The candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated, and that candidates votes are given to their second preference. This repeats until someone gets a majority. This reduces the pressure of tactical voting compared to FPTP, because you can pick a first preference even if you don’t expect them to win and a lower preference as your “well at least it’s not the other big party that I dislike more” as a backup
Party list PR: Each party is given a number of seats equal to their share of the national vote. The party’s most popular candidates in each constituency get seats first (so results will tend towards candidates that are popular in each area, though not strictly. This sacrifices local representation for maximum proportionality
The UK’s general elections are currently FPTP. The Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd use AMS, the Northern Irish Assembly uses STV, and the UK used Party List PR for EU elections prior to Brexit
I like the sound of SVT but do not know any examples of such a system so it could be awful for all I know.
Either way, thank you for such an informative response!
Oh, and a quick overview of the parties. All left-right descriptions are within the UK’s mainstream Overton window:
-
LAB (red): Labour. Currently in power, centre-left to centre. Rooted in trade unions, though that relationship has grown increasingly strained.
-
LD (orange): Liberal Democrats, colloquially Lib Dems. Usually found somewhere between the two major parties, like economic liberalism a lot.
-
GRN (green): Greens. Specifically, Green Party of England and Wales, as the Scottish and Northern Irish Green parties are separate things. Progressive, pro-environmentalism, and anti-nuclear (power and weapons)
-
SNP (yellow): Scottish National Party. A little left of Labour on most issues, but not hugely. The big distinction is that they are pro-Scottish-independence or, failing that, in favour of increased autonomy for Scotland within the UK. Not ethnonationalist, thankfully. Currently in power in the Scottish parliament and the most successful party in Scotland in UK general elections.
-
PC (dark green): Plaid Cymru. Take the SNP description and replace “Scotland” with “Wales” and the policies are pretty much there. Less electorally successful than the SNP, but doing well recently.
-
REF (light blue): Reform UK. Populist right / far right. Basically just the latest vehicle for the biggest anti-EU voice in British politics, Nigel Farage (the guy who recently got challenged by Count Binface). Currently positioned to, potentially, remove the Conservatives from their extremely long run as one of the UK’s two big parties.
-
CON (dark blue): Conservatives, colloquially Tories. Traditionally on the rightward end of mainstream British politics, started drifting ever further right as their prior run in government stretched on. Sort of struggling to figure out exactly what their deal is and rebuild in the wake of that mess, particularly as heaps of their members and voters went to Reform.
Amazing response and incredibly insightful.
Except Plaid Cymru, thats for sure made up. /s?
-
There’s really no such thing as a totally accurate voting system. It’s a whole rabbit hole of variations, all with various trade offs. The stated goal is to create an accurate representation of the vote with an easily understandable voting method. It’s easy to see which is more accurate just by the chart, but understandable can be debated. Which is how the US ended up with the worst possible solution.
Either I’m stupid or this chart is…
